Jon B. Alterman

It is not surprising that discussions with government officials from Gulf Cooperation Council countries often dwell heavily on security threats. But perhaps the greatest security concern is one not of physical security, but of human security. These nations can almost certainly survive the other threats they face. But unless they can create dynamic, hard-working and creative populations over the long term, they will fail.
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For more than a half-century, diplomats in the Middle East have haggled over how to share the great river basins that dot the region. But the rivers are not at the heart of the story, because they are renewable. By contrast, the wells that feed much of the region's agriculture are a finite resource, and they are being exploited far beyond their capacity to restore themselves. more

As much as a military effort, the war against al-Qaida has been a battle for the hearts and minds of the Muslim world. Immediately after the events of Sept. 11, 2001, it was not always clear how that battle for Muslim hearts and minds would end up. But with the passage of time, we now have a good idea. Al-Qaida has lost. And as a result, in an important way, al-Qaida itself has been defeated. more

The United States is grappling with a plan of action as deterioration in Yemen continues. With wealthy GCC allies having shared interest in Yemen's success, the U.S. would do well to take a quiet leadership position, orchestrating funding and action from Yemen's neighbors instead of footing yet another bill in the name of global stability.
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In a region that already has enough conflicts, another one is brewing, and it comes from a surprising source: the Nile. The river that has traversed history from the pharaohs through to the Bible and on to the nationalist revolution of 1952 seems poised to enter a new phase. Only this time, there may not be enough water to go around. more

It is a strange kind of republic in which presidents serve for life. It is an even stranger one in which rulers inherit power from their fathers. Yet, that is the direction in which the Arab Republic of Egypt is headed. For more than a decade, President Hosni Mubarak's son, Gamal, has been the only Egyptian for whom it was safe to harbor high political ambitions. more

China increasingly seems to be the odd man out in international efforts to regulate the Iranian nuclear program. The French have taken a surprisingly hard line, and there are signs that Russia may be stiffening its resolve as well. China, by contrast, seems invariably to caution patience. Ironically, China's policy does not match its interests in the Gulf, which align almost wholly with those of the U.S.
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The government of Iran struggled for decades to fit into the broader Middle East, and it has finally succeeded: It now sees its people principally as a source of instability rather than a source of legitimacy. Thirty years after the Revolution, the Iranian government has concluded that it is far better to anesthetize the population than mobilize it. It is a conclusion from which there is no turning back. more

It is easy to be swept up by all of the images coming out of Iran and think that the days of dictatorship -- in Iran and the rest of the world -- are numbered. But the fact is that governments in the electronic age retain awesome advantages over their nongovernmental opponents, and technology gives them far more tools for managing restive populations than was the case a generation ago.

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For a part of the world that doesn't have a lot of freedom, the Middle East certainly has a lot of upcoming elections that matter. In much of the region, the results are a foregone conclusion. Rulers elsewhere are not about to allow challengers, and victory margins of 20, 40, or even 90 percent are commonplace. What makes these elections so interesting is that their outcomes are truly unknown. more

More than three decades after U.S. and Egyptian presidents together changed the landscape of the Arab-Israeli conflict, the U.S.-Egyptian relationship has grown stale. Egyptians feel unappreciated, and Americans feel that their aid has been taken for granted. The way in which the relationship continues to disappoint expectations is corrosive. It must now be either reinvigorated or "right-sized." more

The U.S. government's map of the Middle East is changing. Long dominated by the Arab-Israeli conflict, U.S. conceptions of the Middle East are drifting eastward, increasingly centering in the Persian Gulf and coming to envelop the mountains and plains of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Seen this way, the U.S. purpose in the region far transcends the need to resolve historical conflicts. more

To hear some people tell the story, anti-Americanism will end now that Barack Obama has been elected president, bringing with him a traditional American respect for foreign cultures, international law, and multilateral diplomacy. The Bush legacy will fade from view, and Americans will once again be beloved around the globe, especially in Arab countries. The world, however, is not so simple. Its grievances will not disappear; indeed, they are unlikely to change much, despite Barack Obama's election victory. more

The Arab Gulf States and the United States are adopting increasingly contradictory positions on Iran. Each side seems bent on undermining the other, potentially leading to precisely the outcome that each side is trying to prevent. There is wisdom in both approaches, but they are far more effective if applied in coordination than if pursued in competition. Not only are the stakes too high for the United States to get this wrong; they are too high for U.S. allies in the Gulf as well. more

China and its Asian neighbors have been the beneficiaries of U.S. efforts to secure the Gulf and its rich oil supplies. Critics charge that China has been content to be something less than a full partner on Gulf security. But it has often yielded to U.S. demands relating to the region. This is not a hopeless case. Cooperation between the United States and China in the Middle East up to now has been incremental. Now, it is in the interests of both China and the United States that it become more systematic. more

Irrational regimes have a way of self-destructing, but hostile ones can linger on. The U.S. predilection is often to favor the destruction of hostile ones in order to "fix" lingering problems. If Iran is indeed a rational but hostile power, the United States should be seeking to apply the lessons of the Cold War and developing tools to manage Iran's actions. Such tools would almost certainly involve more engagement than there has been in the last several years, and building rather than severing ties between the two countries. more

It has become impossible to credibly argue that the Bush Administration's Middle East policies have advanced U.S. national interests. On every issue that the administration has prioritized -- promoting Arab-Israeli peace, liberating Lebanon from Syrian and Iranian influence, democratizing Egypt, stabilizing Iraq, and containing Iran -- America's foes have grown stronger and its allies have grown weaker. And virtually all of these problems are worsening as the administration prepares to leave office. more

On Jan. 13 in Abu Dhabi, U.S. President George W. Bush delivered his third speech dedicated largely to freedom in the Middle East, which is three more than any previous U.S. president. But in his latest speech the president's calculus had clearly changed. Not only was much of the urgency gone, but the language was far more muted. Gone were references to "tyranny" and "oppression," and governments were characterized not as obstacles to freedom but as bulwarks against fanaticism.
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The obituaries for political Islam have begun to be written. After years of seemingly unstoppable growth, Islamic parties have begun to stumble. It is too early to declare the death of political Islam, as it was premature to proclaim the rebirth of liberalism in the Arab world in 2003-04, but its prospects seem notably dimmer than they did even a year ago. But while Islam has not provided a coherent theory of governance, the salience of religion continues to grow among many Muslims. more

Iraq's refugees tell heartbreaking accounts of suffering, displacement, and shattered dreams, but these refugees represent more than mere human interest stories. Collectively, the outpouring of millions of Iraqi refugees into a very small number of neighboring countries poses a dramatic security threat to the Middle East, and there is no sign that threat is going away. The United States is leading by example. It accepts just 70,000 refugees per year worldwide, and only a small fraction have been from Iraq. more