Pundits and politicians alike have been making a number of predictions of late about Iran's future trajectory. To the extent that the scenarios they are outlining serve to justify the policy options they propose and endorse, it may be useful to step back and examine the logic that guides them. After all, many of the assumptions that drove our approach to Iraq policy in the run-up to our invasion of that country were based on intellectual quicksand that would not have stood up to closer scrutiny -- among them, the idea that a post-Saddam Iraq would recognize Israel and become a major partner in the peace process.
So, in no particular order, here's a survey, and an assessment, of some of the assumptions guiding the debate on Iran policy: ...
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