As part of a “big think” forecast project commissioned by an intelligence community sponsor, I’ve begun to think about the future geography of global security. As often with this kind of project, I find myself falling into list-making mode as I contemplate slides for the brief. So here are nine big structural issues that I think any such presentation must include
- Regional integration in East Asia depends on an American security presence. Virtually every country in East Asia is realistically planning for eventual absorption into a regional economic scheme structured around behemoth China, while quietly scheming to balance that increasingly lopsided dependency with solid security ties to the United States. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent article in Foreign Policy reaffirming America’s commitment to Asia highlights China’s conundrum: It cannot advance its economic domination of the region without accepting a U.S. security role. This is the security “tax” it pays for being a single-party state that none of its neighbors feels it can trust. Of course, a truly democratic China right now would probably be even scarier to its neighbors, so this tension will need to be finessed for probably another couple decades. ...
To read the rest, sign up to try World Politics Review
- TWO WEEKS FREE.
- Cancel any time.
- After two weeks, just $11.99 monthly or $94.99/year.
Request a free trial for your office or school. Everyone at a given site can get access through our institutional subscriptions.
- Tensions Rise Between Rouhani and Iran’s Powerful Revolutionary Guard
- The Realist Prism: Falling Energy Prices Offer New Strategic Opportunities for the U.S.
- Diplomatic Fallout: Global Trends Point to Fragmentation of International Crisis Management
- Syria Blowback: U.S. Air Campaign Lethal, but Drives IS Recruitment
- Popular Pressure for Climate Change Action Puts Heat on COP20 in Peru