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The Realist Prism

U.S.-Iran Deal a Gamble for Everyone, Including Netanyahu

If the terms of the deal on Iran’s nuclear program currently circulating in the press are accurate, it suggests the Obama administration is gambling that the time gained by a deal will work in Washington’s favor. That’s a gamble Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t want the U.S. to take.

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Global Insider

Kenya’s Harsh Counterterrorism Tactics Risk Stoking Extremism

By The Editors

In recent months, Kenya has increased its crackdown on Islamic extremism, including mosque raids and alleged extrajudicial killings. In an interview, Jeremy Prestholdt, a professor at the University of California, San Diego, discussed Kenya’s counterterrorism policies.

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IN DEPTH

Hide in Plain Sight: The Strategic Challenge of ‘Gray Swans’

Conventional wisdom holds that the biggest threats to strategy come from sudden and unexpected events, or “black swans.” But too little attention has been paid to a more common problem: “gray swans,” risks that are anticipated but that remain fundamentally improbable, and for that reason are disregarded.

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