Venezuela will have yet another election next month, this time for regional and local leaders. Like other recent elections in the country, it will be an existential challenge for the country rather than simply a mechanism to decide who will lead.
In 2024, Maduro lost an election to opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez by about 40 points. Refusing to accept his loss, he was forced to make up imaginary results, steal the election, and engage in violent repression to maintain power. Then, Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election and made Marco Rubio, a longtime Maduro critic, his secretary of state. Going into the illegitimate inauguration on Jan. 10, 2025, the opposition organized protests, and the situation for the authoritarian regime looked grim.
Weeks after the inauguration, the situation appeared to have flipped in Maduro’s favor. The protests faded, international attention waned, and the opposition leadership divided. The economy held up with oil exports reaching levels that hadn’t been seen in years. The Trump administration, rather than cracking down, sent special envoy Ric Grenell to shake hands with Maduro and strike a deal that appeared to forestall U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports. By late January, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro found himself in a surprisingly strong position compared to just a few weeks before.