Indisputably, the world has entered a new geopolitical era. The optimism that greeted the end of the Cold War with expectations of liberal democracy imminently spreading around the globe now looks sadly naïve. Instead, populist leaders across the globe are winning elections and eroding democratic norms.
The future trajectory of this new era is still unfolding, and part of it will be determined by military might. Russia, now once again a dictatorship, is engaging in both conventional and hybrid wars against its neighbors. And in doing so, it is working alongside other autocratic regimes—China, North Korea and Iran—to strengthen its military arsenal and challenge the still-democratic West.
But while military power will remain a key element of geopolitical competition, elections are still the principal driving force of history in democracies. With that in mind, here are five elections in the coming year that I will be watching closely for their impact on global affairs, hoping for signs of democracy’s resilience and looking for signals about what’s driving voter behavior.