As the U.S. and Iran struggle to find a formula for ending their three-month-old war, it is clear that no matter how the conflict ends, one of its most significant long-term consequences will be the transformed status of the Strait of Hormuz.
Under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, ships are supposed to be allowed free passage through international waterways. But Iran took control of the strait early in the war, and has shown it can do so again in the future. As long as the current regime remains in power in Tehran, the fact that it has established its ability to paralyze navigation through that vital chokepoint—through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supply normally passes—will have grave consequences for the global economy.
Iran’s neighbors, along with the rest of the international community, will keep that in mind going forward, meaning that Tehran will emerge from the war strengthened politically, diplomatically and militarily.