When the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February, it looked as though one of that war’s biggest beneficiaries would be Russia and that, consequently, one of its biggest victims would be Ukraine. Surprisingly, however, the reality on the ground two months later shows something starkly different: Ukraine is doing better now than at almost any time since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
The reasons to believe Russia would emerge stronger from a war in the Middle East were easy to see. The price of oil nearly doubled, delivering a windfall to Moscow at a moment when its economy had been on the verge of a recession. And in an effort to ease the global supply crunch, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration temporarily suspended sanctions on Russian oil exports. The war also diverted Western ammunition supplies, particularly missile interceptors, toward the Middle East, leaving fewer available for supplying Ukraine.
That might seem like the perfect scenario for a renewed Russian offensive. But despite Mosow’s best efforts, its campaign against Ukraine has stalled, and not just slightly. As Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha recently put it, “We are holding the line. Indeed, the battlefield position is the strongest, or most solid it has been in the past year.”