U.S. President Donald Trump’s much-anticipated summit with China’s Xi Jinping is set to take place this week in Beijing following a delay due to the Iran war. Trump will arrive in China in a position of relative weakness, given the unclear endgame of the war and his rock-bottom approval ratings amid domestic disenchantment with rising prices. His leverage is also limited due to China’s chokehold on the global supply of rare earth minerals and a series of U.S. court decisions that have curtailed his ability to impose blanket tariffs.
Xi, on the other hand, is in a more advantageous position. China’s strengths have been buttressed by the war in the Middle East. Its exports of solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles have boomed as countries seek out alternatives to pricey fossil fuels. Beijing’s large strategic oil reserves gave it more of a buffer than Asian neighbors who were less prepared for an oil shock. And despite ongoing domestic headwinds—including low consumer confidence and ongoing purges in his military—Xi will enter the summit with considerable bargaining power. The key question is how this power will be used, both at the summit and in remaining years of Trump’s term.
One likely scenario is that Xi will seek to tie his goal of eventually taking over Taiwan to other key issues that Trump cares about, such as critical minerals and agricultural exports to China. Xi could even pledge to help bring an end to the Iran war on terms favorable to the U.S., though Beijing’s leverage over the Islamic Republic only goes so far. Given Trump’s transactional approach to global politics, his disdain for working with allies, and his past skepticism about the value of defending Taiwan, Xi may see a window of opportunity to cut a deal with Trump.