When U.S. forces struck Venezuela on Saturday, taking President Nicolas Maduro and his wife into custody, they landed a considerable blow against Russia’s foreign policy in Latin America. But that single strike does not tell the entire story of how the events in Venezuela affect Russia’s interests.
It remains unclear how the aftermath of this operation will unfold and who will control Venezuela in the future, but it’s not too soon to assess the net impact on Russia. The accounting for Moscow contains significant items on the negative side of the ledger: Venezuela has been an important foothold for both projecting Russian influence in South America and showing the world that Moscow still wields global reach. Still, on balance and in the long run, the U.S. intervention in Venezuela is a net gain for Russia.
By Russia, to be clear, I am referring to the Kremlin, not the Russian people, and specifically to Russian interests as viewed by President Vladimir Putin, who is now committed to a strategy of aggressive expansionism and international norm-busting.