When the Dutch government collapsed in June, the conventional wisdom suggested that the Netherlands might start to move toward the left of the political spectrum after its recent rightward shift. The far-right Party for Freedom, or PVV, led by anti-Muslim firebrand Geert Wilders, continued to lead in the polls. But the rightist coalition Wilders assembled last July, after having won the country’s legislative elections in November 2023, had fallen after less than a year in government, and the left alliance of Labor, or PvdA, and the Green Left, or GL, led by Frans Timmermans was nipping at the PVV’s heels.
Timmermans, who is an old Labor hand and until recently a top European Union official, looked like he had a good shot at becoming prime minister.
Now, with the elections less than 90 days away, a surprising development has emerged in the opinion surveys: Suddenly, the small center-right Christian Democratic Appeal, or CDA, is surging, and the name of its leader, Henri Bontenbal, is on everyone’s lips.