When the leaders of Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Sweden met in Gdansk on June 25, it put the spotlight on the contribution the Baltic and Eastern European states now make to European security. These states are spending more on defense, coordinating their security policies more closely and preparing seriously for long-term confrontation with Russia. This was cemented in their joint declaration, which backed the European Union’s Eastern Flank Watch initiative and reaffirmed NATO’s target of spending 5 percent of GDP on defense and security-related measures.
However, despite the positive meeting and a wider uptick in European spending on defense overall, Europe still lacks an agreed-upon answer to the central strategic question it faces: How can it meaningfully deter Russia while the U.S. reduces the forces and capabilities it makes available to NATO?
When NATO’s leaders meet in Turkey on July 7 and 8, the countries on Europe’s eastern edge will be looking to the summit to provide that answer. They hope to turn higher spending and regional unity into a revised trans-Atlantic bargain: Europe would carry more of the burden, while Washington would maintain the troops, aircraft, intelligence and command systems on which NATO’s defense plans still depend.