With the regional war sparked by the U.S. and Israel’s attacks on Iran dominating the news cycle, one of the most groundbreaking developments in the history of European nuclear deterrence has gone almost unnoticed. The fact that the development came in the form of a speech by French President Emmanuel Macron, known more for making big announcements than for following through on them, may also have led observers to discount the news as insignificant.
That would be a mistake. The changes to France’s nuclear doctrine and posture that Macron announced two days ago in his speech at Ile Longue, where France’s nuclear-armed submarines are based, represent a momentous shift that could reshape nuclear deterrence on the European continent for years to come. Macron said France would increase the size of its nuclear arsenal and expand cooperation with European allies to deter attacks. Importantly, the speech by France’s “think-tanker in chief” was immediately followed by a joint declaration from him and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, confirming that Macron’s proposals will be followed by action.
The “nuclear speech” is a tradition in French politics, with presidents expected to give one every five-year term in office. The fact that this comes in the form of a presidential address, rather than a formal nuclear posture review as in the U.S., points to an important reality of French nuclear deterrence: it is extremely personalized.