The European Union and the People’s Republic of China will celebrate the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations with a summit in Beijing this week. But the prospects for a productive meeting have long been dim, and they have further eroded over the course of the past several weeks. Brussels faces a particularly difficult situation, as Beijing has been talking and acting tough on many issues of EU concern, from export controls to the war in Ukraine. And if that wasn’t bad enough, the U.S. has offered no reprieve, with President Donald Trump suddenly announcing last week that 30 percent tariffs on the EU will go into effect on Aug. 1.
For the EU, reversing its economic dependency on China is key to achieving greater autonomy in its military and technological capacity from both China and the United States. Any short-term deals to improve relations with Beijing will put these longer-term ambitions at risk. But even if the EU manages to drive a hard bargain at the summit, it may still lack the political cohesion to craft a long-term strategy to achieve its goals.
After Trump’s inauguration in January, it became clear that his trade war would target competitors, like China, but also allies, like the EU and Japan. It was therefore widely expected that, as during the 2018 trade war, EU relations with China would warm as a hedge against an antagonistic U.S. administration. But this expectation proved false, exposing the fact that the rift in EU-China relations is not caused by personalities or short-term political considerations, but by long-term structural changes in the relationship.