The U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran has disrupted the global economy and created the possibility of a drawn-out conflict in the Middle East yet again. The first two weeks of the war have shown that American and Israeli operational successes are not enough to defeat Iran, with the Trump administration’s decision-making now looking flawed and rushed. Bombings of Iranian cities and rising civilian casualties may not necessarily cause a rally-around-the-flag effect that benefits the regime, but they have shifted Iranians’ attention away from anti-regime sentiment to concern for the survival of their country.
Iran’s ability to shut down transit through the Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, has led to skyrocketing oil and gas prices and fears of a global economic crisis. In recent days, President Donald Trump has grown desperate for a way to reopen the maritime chokepoint, even demanding that China cooperate with the U.S. to provide naval patrols to deter Iranian attacks on oil and gas shipping.
These developments suggest that, in the long run, the Iran War has the potential to further strengthen China in its competition with the United States for global leadership. However, in the short term, it has the potential to disrupt China’s rise by increasing domestic economic and political risks. While Trump’s chaotic execution of the war tends to hurt the United States most, the uncertainty that surrounds his decision-making creates pitfalls for China as well, because Beijing’s economic and political goals are more easily attained during periods of global stability.