Canadian Prime Minster Mark Carney made a splash at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week with a speech arguing that middle powers should “stop pretending” the international rules-based order still exists and accept that they live in a “might makes right” world. In what amounted to a rhetorical punch to America’s nose, Carney explained why continuing to appease the U.S. under President Donald Trump would never work; how the status quo has left middle powers with insufficient leverage; how middle powers can change this by charting their own course in coalitions of like-minded states that share their values and interests; and how Canada intends to lead the way in the effort to do so.
Carney’s speech was well-received because it was a brilliantly conceived and executed piece of political rhetoric—speaking at the U.S. but to everyone else—that outlined a frank assessment of what the international community must do to defend international law and institutions in the face of receding U.S. primacy. Unfortunately, its messaging also reflected a doomsday narrative popular of late among foreign policy professionals and thought leaders: that the international rules-based order is, if not entirely dead, then mostly dead.
This view has percolated since Trump began dismantling U.S. foreign aid networks, withdrawing America from international organizations and openly flouting international law. It skyrocketed in recent weeks after the invasion of Venezuela and then with Trump’s insistence that he would acquire Greenland. As Carney put it, “We all know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn’t mourn it.”