Diplomatic Fallout: Has Russia Won the Syrian War?

Diplomatic Fallout: Has Russia Won the Syrian War?

If you take any interest in the Syrian war and international diplomacy, you may well experience a disturbing sense of deja vu this week. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is heading to Moscow. His visit is part of a renewed American campaign to make Russia rethink its strategy of support for the regime in Damascus, which could culminate in talks between Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin at the June G-8 summit in Northern Ireland.

Kerry is reportedly optimistic that he can make some progress. But this new push is reminiscent of earlier, unsuccessful efforts to win over the Russians. Last June, Obama and Putin discussed Syria in the margins of the G-20 in Mexico, but Putin refused to make any serious concessions. Kerry’s predecessor Hillary Clinton went to Moscow later in the same month to parley with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. This paved the way for talks in Geneva with the other permanent members of the Security Council and a communique outlining steps toward a “Credible Political Agreement” (.pdf) in Syria. The document has proved to be worthless.

The mere fact that the U.S. continues to court Moscow over Syria one year later represents a considerable diplomatic victory for Putin and Lavrov. Even if the Russians are by some miracle now ready to compromise, which most observers still think is very unlikely, they have used this war to make themselves look indispensable. And while Syrian President Bashar al-Assad cannot hold out forever, Russia is likely to leave the U.S. and its allies to fix the mess when he falls.

Keep reading for free!

Get instant access to the rest of this article by submitting your email address below. You'll also get access to three articles of your choice each month and our free newsletter:

Or, Subscribe now to get full access.

Already a subscriber? Log in here .

What you’ll get with an All-Access subscription to World Politics Review:

A WPR subscription is like no other resource — it’s like having a personal curator and expert analyst of global affairs news. Subscribe now, and you’ll get:

  • Immediate and instant access to the full searchable library of tens of thousands of articles.
  • Daily articles with original analysis, written by leading topic experts, delivered to you every weekday.
  • Regular in-depth articles with deep dives into important issues and countries.
  • The Daily Review email, with our take on the day’s most important news, the latest WPR analysis, what’s on our radar, and more.
  • The Weekly Review email, with quick summaries of the week’s most important coverage, and what’s to come.
  • Completely ad-free reading.

And all of this is available to you when you subscribe today.

More World Politics Review