When the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran in late February, they expected the Islamic Republic to fall in short order. It’s no small feat that it managed to hold on and fight back during a ferocious bombing campaign by much stronger military forces. But the clever tactics that allowed Iran’s leaders to survive may contain the seeds of their undoing.
Iran’s strategy, which proved effective, relied on two key elements: First, Tehran imposed a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. By disrupting the transit of one-fifth of the world’s supply of oil and natural gas, not to mention substantial portions of other key commodities, Iran aimed to push up crude prices and squeeze the global economy so that U.S. President Donald Trump would find it politically untenable to continue fighting. Second, by attacking U.S. allies in the region, Iran sought to raise the costs of partnering with Washington and create an additional source of pressure on the U.S.
In the short term, the twin campaigns worked. Inflation skyrocketed on the back of surging oil prices, Trump’s approval ratings sank, and in a matter of months, the U.S. agreed to a ceasefire on terms that were highly beneficial to Iran. But the truce quickly unraveled as Iran sought to make it absolutely clear that no ship would navigate through the Strait of Hormuz without its authorization, and the U.S. decided to forcefully reject that position.