The United Arab Emirates’ recent decision to leave OPEC, the once-powerful oil producers’ cartel, was years in the making, driven primarily by a divergence in economic realities. The UAE had developed a less oil-dependent economy than Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, so it had a different approach to oil pricing and output levels. Analysts noted that the Iran war, with its temporary boost to oil prices, created an opportunity for Abu Dhabi to make the move without causing prices to collapse.
While this analysis points to genuine factors, it misses a key driver of the decision, and one of its most significant geopolitical ramifications: The UAE is breaking not only with OPEC, but also from many of its neighbors. Abu Dhabi has long been crafting a new regional security framework that puts it at odds with erstwhile allies like Saudi Arabia, but this trend has been accelerated by the Iran war. The aftershocks will continue to be felt throughout the region long after the conflict ends.
After the U.S. and Israel launched a campaign of airstrikes against Iran in late February, the country responded with missile and drone strokes against U.S. allies and partners in the Gulf, with the UAE being particularly hard hit. The view from Abu Dhabi is that its friends in the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Arab League and elsewhere failed to respond in a manner commensurate with Iran’s actions. As a result, Emirati leaders now hold a very different view from their neighbors regarding the threat posed by Iran and how it should be addressed in the future.