Promises made, promises kept? That is the key theme coming out of U.S. President Donald Trump’s whirlwind tour of Asia last week. During stops in Malaysia, Japan and South Korea, Trump met with leaders of regional U.S. allies and partners, as well as with China, the main U.S. competitor in the world. With each visit, Trump made promises—and also received them.
Let’s start with China. Trump’s meeting with President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Busan, South Korea, resulted in two key categories of promises. First, there were trade commitments. Trump promised to cut U.S. tariffs he had imposed ostensibly due to Beijing’s alleged inaction on materials used in the production of fentanyl. In response, China agreed to temporarily pause export restrictions on rare earth minerals and ease its export ban on microchips vital to car production, as well as resume purchases of U.S.-grown soybeans. That makes for a promising start, but everything will now depend on follow-through, which is where Trump’s first-term trade deal with China broke down.
Second, according to Trump, Xi assured him that China would refrain from taking aggressive action against Taiwan so long as Trump is in office. But that issue was apparently not discussed during their meeting, at least according to official readouts, and it is the first time that Trump has made mention of such a promise. Assuming Xi actually said it and sticks to it, those who have warned that China could take military action against the island as early as 2027 have cause for relief. However, given that other experts don’t foresee China planning to attack Taiwan until the 2030s at the earliest, Xi’s promise—again, if he made one—may not represent any real concession. Nevertheless, that will probably not stop Trump from claiming once again that he, and only he, can handle tough leaders like Xi (though he is apparently still running into difficulties with Russia’s Vladimir Putin).