Voters in the Netherlands dealt a humbling blow to pollsters, whose statistical snapshots of the electorate did not bear out in last week’s national election. But it wasn’t only the professional pollsters who got the election wrong. Now, many of the analysts offering their interpretation of the results are also missing the mark.
The pundits’ first-blush conclusion was that the Dutch sent a powerful message in support of centrist politics and a return to “normal” after a dalliance with the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders. Unfortunately, that is the flawed product of wishful thinking.
According to the polls, Wilders—who leads the one-man Party for Freedom, or PVV—was on track to finish in first place, as he did in 2023. The left-of-center Green-Labor alliance, or GL-PvdA, was thought to be nipping at his heels. In fact, Wilders slipped badly, while PvdA also lost ground. In a surprise finish, the centrist Democrats 66, or D66, party under the leadership of the photogenic Rob Jetten took first place by the narrowest of margins.