Could the world be stumbling into catastrophe? There is widespread concern right now that we are about to find out, with both the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza seemly poised to escalate into regional conflagrations.
Let’s start with Ukraine. For over two years, the leaders of the Western nations supporting Kyiv in its war against Russian aggression have repeatedly taken gradual and tentative steps in supplying it with major weapons systems. From the “free the Leopards” campaign to the provision of F-16 fighter jets, time and again the countries of NATO—particularly the United States—have been careful to avoid taking measures that could provoke Russia into widening the war by, for instance, directly attacking a NATO nation supplying Ukraine with weapons. But now Ukrainian forces are carrying out a major counteroffensive into Russian territory itself. The new worry is that this could lead to even further escalation of the war by Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn a nuclear-use “red line” around Russian territory and has not been shy about repeatedly rattling the nuclear saber. If Russia did use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, would that draw a strong response from Kyiv’s NATO backers?
In Gaza, meanwhile, many have worried about the war spreading ever since Israel launched its military response to the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas. Indeed, at numerous times during the past year, events have taken a turn toward a possible widening of the war, including attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants on Western merchant ships in the Red Sea; a large-scale drone and missile strike launched by Iran following Israel’s own air strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria; and most recently, the assassination—presumably by Israel—of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader, while he was visiting Tehran. A sense of impending doom now hovers over the region, as it waits for Iran to retaliate for Haniyeh’s killing, as it has promised to do despite pleas for restraint.