A Persistent Crisis in Central America

Violence and corruption in Central America, particularly in the Northern Triangle countries, is causing a wave of outward migration. The Trump administration’s restrictive measures and pressure on regional governments did nothing to address the root causes of the problem, which the Biden administration has now pledged to tackle. Meanwhile, efforts at reform across the region face opposition from entrenched interests that benefit from the status quo. Explore WPR’s extensive coverage of the Central America crisis.

For years, Central America has contended with the violence and corruption stemming from organized crime and the drug trade. More recently, the countries of the region also found themselves in former U.S. President Donald Trump’s line of fire, due to the many desperate Central Americans who make their way across Mexico to seek asylum at the United States’ southern border.

The steady stream of outward migration is driven by ongoing turmoil, particularly in Nicaragua and the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The three Northern Triangle countries rank among the most violent in the world, a legacy of the civil wars in El Salvador and Guatemala, which destabilized security structures and flooded the region with guns. In that context, gangs—often brought back home by deportees from the U.S.—have proliferated, and along with them the drug trade and corruption, fueling increasing lawlessness. Popular unrest has done little to produce political solutions, leading many of the most vulnerable to flee.

Trump instrumentalized migration for domestic political purposes, while also using threatened cuts in U.S. development aid to pressure governments in the region to do more to hamper the outflow and to take in migrants returned from the U.S. border. But his administration did little to help regional governments address the root causes of the crisis—graft and violence. His successor, President Joe Biden, has pledged to return to a more conventional approach of using development aid and high-level support for anti-corruption efforts to address the region’s political, economic and security deficits. But the situation on the southern U.S. border since Biden took office suggests the issue will remain no less of a challenge for his administration.

In places where it seemed that popular movements and a new generation of leaders might make a difference, like Guatemala and El Salvador, entrenched interests have done their best to maintain the status quo, much as they have in the face of reformist efforts in other countries in the region. And El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, has more recently raised fears of a return to authoritarianism by concentrating power in his own hands and politicizing the military.

WPR has covered the Central America crisis in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next there. Will popular anti-corruption movements survive the backlash against them by the region’s entrenched political interests? What effect will the coronavirus pandemic have on the factors driving outmigration? How effective will the Biden administration’s approach to the region be? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.

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Politics

A few years ago, the region seemed to be at a political crossroads, driven by citizens’ frustration with the seemingly perpetual corruption and violence. But entrenched elites in Guatemala and Honduras succeeded in dismantling independent commissions that had proven effective at uprooting corruption, while elsewhere, leaders promising reform have failed to deliver. Meanwhile, Bukele’s authoritarian slide has raised alarm over the health of El Salvador’s democracy.

• Why Costa Rica might not achieve everything it hopes to by legalizing medical cannabis, in For Costa Rica, Legalizing Medical Marijuana Is No Panacea
• Why Costa Rican voters are increasingly frustrated with their country’s democratic institutions, in Costa Rica’s Fragmented Politics Is Failing to Deliver Results
• Why El Salvador is a cautionary tale for other countries seeking to roll back reproductive rights, in El Salvador’s Abortion Ban Is Killing Women

Corruption

The region is plagued by corruption, often tied to the organized crime syndicates behind the drug trade. Persistent citizen protests and the airing of scandals seem to have little impact on systems that perpetuate graft. And in countries where anti-corruption campaigns scored major victories, like Guatemala and Honduras, the entrenched interests have fought back.

• What the extradition of Honduras’ former president to the U.S. means for accountability in the country, in Honduras’ Hernandez Will Face Justice, but His Narco-State Could Live On
• Why winning might have been the easy part for Honduras’ new president, in Castro Will Have Her Hands Full Cleaning Up Honduras’ Mafia State
• Why Biden’s “root causes” approach to tackling Central American migration will be an uphill climb in Guatemala, in Guatemala Has No Intention of Tackling Corruption

Nicaragua

Nicaragua was brought to the brink of a civil war in 2018 over proposed economic reforms. After shelving the measures in a concession to protesters, President Daniel Ortega went on to violently repress the opposition, causing international alarm. Now there is no exit strategy in sight from what has become Nicaragua’s “new normal” of repression, particularly following the recent sham elections that cemented Ortega’s grip on power.

• How Ortega is stepping up his repression after securing another term in office, in Ortega’s Sham Trials Mark Another Step Toward Dictatorship
• How Ortega put the final nails in the coffin of Nicaragua’s democracy, in Ortega Is Leaving Nothing to Chance in Nicaragua’s Election Farce
• Why Nicaraguan dissidents are no longer even safe in exile, in Nicaragua’s ‘Night of Terror’ Is Getting Even Darker

Migrant Crisis and the Northern Triangle

In addition to rampant violence, the massive migration from the three Northern Triangle countries is driven by a lack of economic opportunities and the absence of rule of law. By setting increasingly difficult hurdles for Central Americans to enter the United States, though, Washington is increasing the pressure on regional governments—and its Mexican ally, which is currently grappling with the influx of migrants and refugees. Biden has promised to reverse Trump’s border policies and focus on helping regional partners address the root causes of migration, but both initiatives face political hurdles—in the U.S. among Trump supporters and in the Northern Triangle among the region’s entrenched elites, respectively.

• Why international law matters when it comes to changing minds about detaining asylum-seekers, in The U.S. Is Breaking the Law on the Southern Border
• Why Biden is finding it difficult to sell his plan to Washington’s Central American partners, in Biden’s ‘Root Causes’ Approach to Migration Meets Resistance in Central America
• Why a strengthened president in El Salvador could spell trouble for Biden, in El Salvador’s Election Just Complicated Biden’s Migrant Plan

Security and Drugs

Violence tied to gangs and drug trafficking overshadows the region, but particularly the Northern Triangle countries. Government attempts to clamp down on crime through strict militarized policies have largely failed, while global efforts to reduce drug trafficking through aid programs are undermined by the demand for narcotics from the United States and Europe.

• How the COVID-19 pandemic is changing the illegal drug trade, in How the Illicit Drug Trade Is Adapting to the Coronavirus Pandemic
• Why years of reform efforts have failed to solve Honduras’ prison crisis, in In Honduras, ‘Gangs Effectively Control the Prisons’
• Why the Honduran president has become a problematic partner for the U.S., in Will Drug Trafficking Charges Shift U.S. Support for Honduras’ Hernandez?

Trade

Trump used trade as an unlikely weapon in his battle to stop Central American migrants from heading to the United States. But Central American leaders are busy exploring other options. Several countries have cut ties recently with Taiwan, sending a clear signal to Beijing that they are keen to open negotiation channels.

• Why Congress shouldn’t use preferential trade with Central America as an excuse to raise trade barriers with other developing countries, in U.S. Trade Policy Shouldn’t Pit Developing Countries Against Each Other
• Why Trump considered kicking three Central American countries out of a long-standing trade agreement, in Trump’s Strangest Trade Idea Yet
• How China’s Belt and Road Initiative made inroads in Central America, in China is Luring Away Taiwan’s Longtime Partners in Central America and the Caribbean

Editor’s note: This article was originally published in June 2019 and is regularly updated.