KAMPALA, Uganda — After three years of brutal civil war, the stage is set for a fight that could determine the fate of Sudan and whether it even remains a unified country. For 18 months, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have besieged El-Obeid, the largest city in the vast Kordofan region, a powerful economic engine due to its livestock, oil processing and gum arabic production.
The city sits at a critical axis connecting the capital, Khartoum, to the oil fields of the south. It hosts a major military base, railway lines and an airport used for logistics and air operations. It also serves as the operational headquarters of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) for all of central Sudan.
If the RSF seizes the city, it will be able to sever the army’s western supply corridor, eliminate its primary command infrastructure in central Sudan, and establish a contiguous territorial arc from Darfur through Kordofan toward the Nile. That would shift the entire contest and call into question whether the SAF can hold any territory in Sudan’s heartland.