Pictures of Syrian President Bashar Assad at a checkpoint to the Hamidiyeh market, Damascus, Syria, Feb. 21, 2016 (AP photo by Hassan Ammar).

With Russian-backed Syrian forces close to encircling Aleppo, thereby cutting off supply lines for the rebels holding the key city, the Syrian civil war seems to have entered a new phase. Russia’s intervention has clearly reversed the course of the conflict, dimming prospects for meaningful compromise by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s newly ascendant regime in peace talks to end the fighting. Instead, the pro-regime coalition seems to have decided to win the war in western Syria on the ground, with the recently agreed cease-fire simply diplomatic cover for a slow consolidation of territorial control. Since Russia’s intervention last fall, critics […]

U.N. Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, New York, Dec. 18, 2015 (AP photo by Bebeto Matthews).

It is difficult to see how the United Nations can get through 2016 without taking the blame for one or more major catastrophes. Its latest efforts to make peace in Syria have gone off the rails. The Security Council is fretting about the risks of mass violence in Burundi. U.N. peacekeeping operations have had a shaky start to the year. Terrorists have kept up attacks on peacekeepers in Mali. Last week, violence in a U.N. camp in South Sudan spiraled out of control, claiming at least 18 lives. It may just be a matter of time before a similar incident […]

Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny addressing the staff of Paypal at Xerox Technology Park, Dundalk, Ireland, Feb. 16, 2016 (Press Association photo by Niall Carson via AP).

Facing a March deadline for new elections, Ireland’s prime minister, Enda Kenny, leader of the center-right Fine Gael party, dissolved parliament earlier this month and called a general election for Feb. 26. Opinion polls deem it unlikely that the current government will be returned to office. But the fragmentation of Ireland’s post-recovery political landscape, in particular the working-class vote, and the losses likely to be sustained by the left-wing Labour Party, which is in a coalition with Fine Gael, make it difficult to predict the complexion of the government that will emerge from Friday’s general election. Five years ago, in […]

President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro before a bilateral meeting, United Nations headquarters, New York, Sept. 29, 2015 (AP photo by Andrew Harnik).

On Thursday, the White House announced that President Barack Obama will visit Cuba next month, the first trip there by an American president since 1928. Obama will meet with Cuban President Raul Castro and members of civil society, including dissidents who have criticized Cuba’s human rights record. U.S.-Cuba relations began to thaw in December 2014, when Obama and Castro announced the launch of a normalization process that would break decades of hostility. Last April, the Obama administration removed Cuba from the U.S. State Sponsors of Terrorism List, and in July, the Cuban flag was raised over the embassy in Washington […]

U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter addresses U.S. troops at the Incirlik Air Base, Adana, Turkey, Dec. 15, 2015 (AP photo).

In the aftermath of the Cold War, two operations became seminal events for America’s armed forces: Operation Desert Storm and the peacekeeping mission in the former Yugoslavia. The military’s leaders saw the war with Iraq as the model for their future, so they institutionalized it in what they called the “revolution in military affairs.” But, in fact, Yugoslavia was the true preview of 21st-century conflict. Now Syria has become Yugoslavia on steroids, the bloody paragon of this century’s wars. As in Yugoslavia, ethnic, sectarian, religious and regional hostility that the national government had long suppressed and kept in check were […]

Kenyan soldiers pay their respects at a memorial service honoring soldiers killed while on peacekeeping duty in Somalia, Eldoret, Kenya, Jan. 27, 2016 (AP photo by John Muchucha).

With a devastating attack last month on an army base in southwestern Somalia housing Kenyan soldiers, the militant group al-Shabab once again signaled its strength, despite the years-long regional effort to wipe it out. Dozens of Kenyan soldiers were slaughtered in the assault, which raised questions about Nairobi’s role in the ongoing campaign against the Islamic extremists. But Kenya President Uhuru Kenyatta insists his government is committed to vanquishing al-Shabab—even as it does everything it can to silence any domestic debate over Kenya’s continued involvement in that effort. Kenya first ventured into Somalia in October 2011 with the launch of […]

Popular Party supporters outside the party's headquarters following the national elections, Madrid, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2015 (AP photo by Paul White).

When Spain went to the polls last December, the outcome sent the country into a state of political limbo. Neither the incumbent conservative Popular Party (PP) nor the main opposition party, the social-democratic Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), captured the majority of seats necessary to form a new government in the Congress of Deputies, Spain’s parliament. The PP won 28.7 percent of votes; the PSOE won 22 percent. At the same time, two political newcomers, bolstered by the economic crisis that has gripped Spain since 2011, managed to capture a third of all votes cast. The resulting 20 percent for […]

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang at the Presidential Palace, Hanoi, Vietnam, Nov. 6, 2015 (AP photo by Na Son Nguyen).

Editor’s note: This article is part of an ongoing WPR series on the South China Sea territorial disputes and the various claimant countries’ approaches to addressing them. When Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Hanoi early last month, he did so with understandable fanfare and scrutiny. His was the first visit to Vietnam by a Chinese president in a decade. It came just weeks before the annual ASEAN and East Asia Summits, and only a few months ahead of the Vietnamese Communist Party congress to be held in early 2016. Given the timing, observers in China and Vietnam, as well as […]

Former Saudi intelligence chief and diplomat Prince Turki al-Faisal at the Beirut Institute Summit, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, Oct. 10, 2015 (AP photo by Kamran Jebreili).

An intriguing incident occurred at last weekend’s Munich Security Conference, shedding light on the prospects for a historic realignment in relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors. The incident, particularly noteworthy when viewed in conjunction with other signs of movement, occurred after a presentation by Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon at the conference. Yaalon told the audience that Israel has frequent communications with a number of Sunni Arab states that, according to Yaalon, see Israel as an ally against the Iranian threat. He made it clear that he was not speaking only about Jordan and Egypt, with which Israel has […]

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon at the Palace of Nations, Dushanbe, Tajikistan, Nov. 3, 2015 (Pool photo by Brendan Smialowski via AP).

Farhod makes his living driving a taxi in Gharm, a mountainous region of the former Soviet republic of Tajikistan. During the country’s civil war in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the valley formed the principal stronghold of the anti-communist opposition. Farhod lost two of his brothers in the five-year conflict, in which more than 50,000 people died. His leg was amputated after he was wounded fighting government forces. Despite having every reason to hate the current regime of President Emomali Rahmon, who came to power in 1992 soon after the war began, he does not. “President […]

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak announces budget revisions, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Jan. 28, 2016 (AP photo by Joshua Paul).

Editor’s note: This article is part of an ongoing WPR series on the impact of falling oil and commodities prices on resource-exporting countries. Last month, Malaysia cut its 2016 growth forecast and slashed spending plans as the economy continues to suffer from falling oil prices. In an email interview, Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, discussed Malaysia’s economy and the impact of the commodities slump. WPR: How important are oil and commodities for Malaysia’s economy, and what impact have falling oil and commodities prices had on domestic politics? Joshua Kurlantzick: Oil and commodities […]

Chinese performers participate in a cultural dance at Ditan Park to mark the first day of the Lunar New Year, Beijing, Feb. 8, 2016 (AP photo by Andy Wong).

In this special edition of the Trend Lines podcast, WPR Editor-in-Chief Judah Grunstein and host Peter Dörrie talk about China’s rise as an economic and political power and the implications for Asia and the rest of the world. The discussion coincides with a panel WPR is sponsoring on China’snaval, economic and cyber ambitionsand the implications for the U.S. at the St. Petersburg Conference on World Affairs on Feb. 19. Listen:Download: MP3Subscribe: iTunes | RSS Relevant articles on WPR: The Challenge of China’s Bid for Cyber Suzerainty China’s Naval Modernization: Where Is It Headed? Do China’s Global Economic Ambitions Really Threaten […]

Presidential candidates before the CBS News Republican presidential debate, Feb. 13, 2016, Greenville, S.C. (AP photo by John Bazemore).

An iconic cover illustration of the New Yorker magazine once purported to show the stereotypical Manhattan resident’s view of the world: Looking west from 9th Avenue, half the page consists of a relatively detailed rendering of the city’s buildings and streets leading up to the Hudson River. Beyond that, a small patch of land, featureless but for several cartoonish mountains and place names, passes for America. Faintly visible in the distance beyond the Pacific Ocean are landmasses helpfully labeled as China, Japan and Russia. If one were to draw a similar cartoon illustration to represent how this year’s U.S. presidential […]

Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman as he is escorted to a helicopter in handcuffs by Mexican soldiers and marines, Mexico City, Mexico, Jan. 8, 2016 (AP photo by Marco Ugarter).

Six months after suffering one of the greatest embarrassments of his term, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto breathed a sigh of relief early last month. “Mission accomplished: we have him,” he announced on Twitter: Drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, Mexico’s most wanted man, had been recaptured by Mexican marines in the state of Sinaloa. But the implications of El Chapo’s escape and arrest do not just end at the border. The episode has reinvigorated security cooperation between the United States and Mexico, while shining a light on the partnership’s economic benefits, as well. El Chapo’s brazen July 2015 escape […]

British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond and Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida at a press conference, Tokyo, Jan. 8, 2016 (AP photo by Eugene Hoshiko).

In January, British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon and Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond visited Japan to meet with their Japanese counterparts. Following the meeting, both sides agreed to explore ways to deepen and expand their security cooperation. In an email interview, Edward Schwarck, a research fellow in Asia studies and manager of the Asia Program at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, discusses the U.K.’s security ties with Asia. WPR: Who are the U.K.’s main security partners in Asia, and how extensive are their security ties? Edward Schwarck: As has been stated on many occasions by British ministers, the […]

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the inaugural ceremony of 'Make in India' week, Mumbai, India, Feb. 13, 2016 (AP photo by Rajanish Kakade).

For more than six decades following India’s independence in 1947, urbanization remained an afterthought for policymakers, who hardly recognized the positive relationship between urban expansion and economic development. It wasn’t until 1984, when Rajiv Gandhi became India’s youngest prime minister and brought with him a new, young brigade of leaders, that those in power began to acknowledge that urbanization could serve India’s economy. Gandhi’s initiatives on urbanization, while new, were nonetheless hesitant. Through the 1990s and the early 2000s, analysts increasingly spoke of India’s “urban turn” and hinted at the beginnings of a serious investment in urban infrastructure and connectivity. […]

Morocco's King Mohammed VI attends Friday prayers at the Malik ibn Anas mosque, Carthage, Tunis, June 6, 2014 (AP photo by Aimen Zine).

MARRAKECH, Morocco—There is a strong consensus among counterterrorism experts in the Maghreb and the Sahel that comprehensive and integrated approaches are needed to confront the threat from al-Qaida, the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) and their regional affiliates and rivals. Military force is necessary but not sufficient to deal a significant blow to this all-consuming threat: Everything from educational reform to inclusive economic growth is on the policy table. One of the trickiest components of such a comprehensive approach is what governments can do to nurture peaceful practices in Islam, and tolerance between Muslims and followers of other faiths. Morocco has […]

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