Latest Archive

The geopolitics surrounding the crisis in Venezuela captures the new normal of inter-American relations. The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), a regional South American body created in 2008, has stepped up its involvement and, through a three-member delegation of Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador’s foreign ministers, is playing a prominent role in fostering dialogue. Meanwhile, the United States, though keen to shape the post-Chavez trajectory of Venezuela, is in the background, unsure of how to make a constructive impact. This unfolding episode serves as further reminder that U.S. foreign policy toward South America remains largely unsettled. Washington’s preferences do not […]

The 20th anniversary of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide this month was marked by the re-emergence of tensions between France and Rwanda, after Rwandan President Paul Kagame claimed that France bore some responsibility for the genocide.* In an email interview, Bruno Charbonneau, associate professor of political science at Laurentian University and the director of the Center for Peace and Humanitarian Missions Studies at Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canada, explained the continuing tensions in France-Rwanda ties. WPR: To what extent have France and Rwanda succeeded at repairing ties in the past few years? Bruno Charbonneau: The two sides were talking, but the […]

Returning the aging and ailing Abdelaziz Bouteflika to the presidency for a fourth term, the April 17 elections in Algeria delivered few surprises—much to the relief of the United States, France and the Algerian economic and political elite. At the same time, some Algerians questioned the legitimacy of the electoral process, whether by staying home in large numbers or through violent clashes in Kayblia, the Berber region in the northeast. Bouteflika’s supporters at home and abroad repeatedly underlined the necessity of stability in Algeria, a country with violent Islamist movements in the Sahara and one that suffered an exceedingly bloody […]

For this week at least, Russia’s revived aggression is dominating the news in the United States. Once the furor subsides, the conflict with al-Qaida will likely regain most of the attention from the media and national security experts. But in the long term, these issues pale in importance to the challenge of China’s rising power, however much it may have faded into the background today. As China’s economy took off in recent decades, the nation undertook a vast military expansion and became increasingly confident and assertive, shifting from a sullen, insular nation to a global power. The United States responded […]

Three decades after the passage of the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States continues to augment Taiwan’s military capabilities—recent discussions have raised the possibility of the U.S. helping Taiwan to acquire U.S.-made frigates and a new indigenous type of diesel submarines. But China’s rising military capabilities place the island in an increasingly vulnerable position. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a bill that would authorize the sale of four Perry-class frigates to Taiwan. The bill’s sponsor, Rep. Ed Royce, called Taiwan “a beacon of hope and democracy in a part of the world that still yearns for the basic […]

The standoff in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatists and the central government in Kiev is far from resolved. But whatever its outcome, NATO needs to take urgent measures to deter Russian military intervention in Moldova and reinforce its security guarantees to NATO members Bulgaria and Romania. These two countries are no less vulnerable to Russian pressure than the NATO members to their north, namely Poland and the Baltic states. In addition, Bulgaria and Romania’s strong support is needed to advance Western goals in the Balkans, the Caspian region and Central Asia. Ideally NATO would reassure Moscow that Moldova will not […]

When King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand celebrated the 60th anniversary of his accession to the throne in June 2006, millions of Thais descended on Bangkok to join in the festivities. The king seemed to be at the height of his popularity. Beyond his considerable talents as a musician, painter and inventor, he had dedicated his reign to improving the welfare of the country’s most disadvantaged. Seeing the sight, foreign journalists had to concede the king was beloved by all Thais. In short, the legacy of Bhumibol’s reign seemed all but assured. Indeed, there was much to celebrate in mid-2006 not […]

As Iraq gears up for general elections scheduled for April 30, the political constellation that has allowed Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to stay in power for two terms is realigning in unexpected ways, raising questions about Maliki’s ability to retain Iraq’s top job. Apart from the similar context of violence in which it will likely take place, this round of voting will be greatly different from the three other national elections held since 2005. First, the country’s political landscape is more fragmented than it used to be. Former large alliances have given way to smaller entities, even as the electoral […]

On July 23, 1999, Morocco’s ruler, King Hassan II, died and was succeeded by his eldest son, Mohammed VI. Many Moroccans hoped that the succession would also entail a transition from a system of autocratic rule to a liberal democracy, and the new king’s early initiatives seemed likely to give substance to these hopes. Now, 15 years later, it is possible to see to what extent those hopes have been fulfilled and, if they have not, to determine why and to what degree they have been disappointed. The expectations for the new reign did not emerge, of course, in a […]

Facing a level of criticism unprecedented since its restoration in 1975, the Spanish monarchy is in full damage control mode. “I am sorry, I made a mistake. It won’t happen again,” said King Juan Carlos in a seemingly improvised, but actually well-rehearsed, television address in April 2012. Prompting the extraordinary mea culpa by the 76-year-old Spanish monarch—a direct descendent of Europe’s most iconic rulers, including King Louis XIV of France, on both sides of his family, and Queen Victoria of England, on his mother’s side—was the controversy created by a photograph showing Juan Carlos holding a rifle next to a […]

Seven hundred pages of George Kennan’s diaries have just been published, and though I have not read them, David Greenberg’s review in the New Republic gives us dilettantes some of the highlights—and at times the lowlights—of the entries that cover the years from 1916 to 2004. Greenberg focuses on a fact that historians knew, but which the public by and large does not: Kennan was, by the standards of our age and, more importantly, by the standard of his own, a bigot. “As a 28-year-old Foreign Service officer,” writes Greenberg, “[Kennan] remains convinced that the world’s problems are ‘essentially biological.’” […]

China’s leadership has long vowed it will clean up the country’s bureaucracy and break up government monopolies. But the state apparatus has often seemed unwilling or unable to push through substantive implementation measures—until now. Under Xi Jinping, we are witnessing the most sustained and well-strategized attack on vested interests in at least 15 years. This campaign is unfolding at a pace and on a scale that is surpassing the expectations of most analysts and may yield substantive progress on critical issues, ultimately accelerating the marketization of the world’s second-largest economy. Commitments from senior Chinese officials to eradicate corruption, improve regulatory […]

Early this month, Guatemalan President Otto Perez Molina announced he was considering a plan to legalize the production of marijuana and opium poppies in the country. In an email interview, Adriana Beltran, a senior associate for citizen security at the Washington Office on Latin America who specializes in Guatemala, explained how drug legalization might affect levels of violence in Guatemala. WPR: Who are the main actors driving insecurity in Guatemala, and what are their primary activities? Adriana Beltran: Violence in Guatemala comes from many sources. Organized criminal organizations are one of the main drivers of violence. Their members include former […]

One of the Obama administration’s biggest foreign policy gambles, the agreement to rid Syria of its chemical weapons in the midst of that country’s civil war, is behind schedule but still making progress. Despite tensions over Ukraine and the outcome of the Syrian civil war itself, the United States, Russia and others appear to be maintaining cooperation on the issue. On Monday, the Organization for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)—the Netherlands-based international organization responsible for ensuring compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention—announced in a statement that the Syrian government had delivered two additional shipments of chemicals to the port city […]

Nepal is keenly watching India’s ongoing parliamentary elections, where the presumed victory of Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi is raising questions about the future of the Himalayan nation’s transition from a Hindu monarchy to a secular democracy. In 2006, Nepal agreed to abolish its 240-year-old Hindu monarchy as part of the Comprehensive Peace Accord ending a decade-long Maoist insurgency. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), then the main opposition party in India and leader of the National Democratic Alliance, wasn’t happy with the change at the time, and BJP nostalgia for its neighbor’s official Hindu identity has lingered. “We used to feel […]

Over the next few weeks, more than 800 million Indians will head to the polls to vote in a general election in the world’s largest democracy. Early signs indicate that Narendra Modi, the opposition candidate from the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will beat the ruling Congress party’s Rahul Gandhi despite the latter’s ties to the powerful Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. While this is testament to Congress’ poor performance during its decade in power, the eventual election outcome—whatever that may be—could in fact bring more continuity than change for India. When Congress defeated the BJP in an upset election in 2004 […]

The sheer magnitude of the elections taking place in India make them historic and worthy of international attention. But even if the contest had more familiar proportions it would still constitute a major event in world affairs. The choice of India’s next leader is sending nervous chills down some people’s spines. The next government in New Delhi will have the power to shake up the world’s largest democracy, the globe’s second-most-populous country and a nuclear-armed nation with a history of ethnic strife and a sense of unfulfilled economic potential. When election results are announced on May 16, they will most […]