Latest Archive

Amid the crisis in Crimea, Turkey authorized a U.S. Navy destroyer to pass through the Bosphorus last week but noted that the legal agreement governing access to the Black Sea would not permit a U.S. aircraft carrier to make the same passage. In an email interview, James Kraska, an expert in maritime governance who is Mary Derrickson McCurdy visiting scholar at Duke University, discussed the terms of the Montreux Convention. WPR: What is the history of the Montreux Convention, and what are its terms? James Kraska: The Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits 1936 (the Montreux Convention) governs transit […]

It’s safe to say that the U.S.-Russia reset is now dead and buried. It was already losing steam, in part because the low-hanging fruit it offered had already been harvested—and because many of the “concessions” made by both sides at the high point of the reset in 2010 and 2011 were decisions that Moscow or Washington would have taken anyway. The Obama administration’s decision, for instance, to cancel the Bush administration’s plan to deploy a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic was guided as much by concerns about cost and technical infeasibility as it was about improving […]

In February, Mexico City lawmakers introduced two bills that would decriminalize and regulate the consumption of marijuana in the Mexican capital. Possession of marijuana for personal and medical uses would no longer be subject to incarceration as a first response, and legal marijuana dispensaries would be allowed in the capital. Mexico City’s move follows others in the U.S. states of Washington and Colorado, which approved initiatives by popular vote in late 2012 to legalize and regulate the personal use of marijuana for adults 21 and older, as well as commercial cultivation, manufacture and sale. Together with Uruguay, which became the […]

The Indian state of Gujarat has a mixed reputation in the United States. India watchers have praised its brisk economic growth and the ease of doing business there, but many also recall Gujarat’s spasm of communal violence in 2002 that left many hundreds dead. With India’s parliamentary elections a month away, the man who oversaw the state’s successes and failures as Gujarat’s chief minister since 2001, Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), looks likely to become India’s next prime minister. This puts the United States in an awkward position. The State Department revoked Modi’s travel visa in 2005 […]

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was elected in June 2013 on a ticket of change, amid hope for improvements in both domestic and foreign affairs. His constituents were, and still are, hoping for an easing of the political atmosphere, a less stifling environment on university campuses, a more predictable and stable style of governance and, most importantly, a reversal of the economic decline that has impoverished Iranians in the past 3-4 years. In many ways, most of the promises on this electoral laundry list hinge on the last item—turning the Iranian economy around. This plays into but is not the sole […]

No, this is not a “war for oil,” to cite the old cliche. But behind all the maneuvering, speculation and strategizing in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine and the West, oil and gas reserves and the pipelines that turn them into cash lie in the background, just a step behind the principal action. Russia’s vast hydrocarbon stocks figure into the calculations of the major players, who worry Moscow may deploy them once again as a weapon. Oil has played a decisive role in the arsenal of geopolitical disputes. And Russia has proved willing to use its massive exports of natural gas […]

After more than a decade with the U.S. at war, the question around Washington is not whether the Defense Department’s budget will come down, but by how much. The Department of Defense officially released its base budget yesterday, which came in at slightly less than $500 billion, alongside a new Quadrennial Defense Review. Previewing the budget last week, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said the new budget is the first “to fully reflect the transition DOD is making for after 13 years of war—the longest conflict in our nation’s history.” The White House and the Pentagon face a tough balancing act, […]

Russian troops pouring into Ukraine last weekend were one more wake-up call to America about the scale of Moscow’s ambition. The first came with Stalin’s creation of satellite states in Eastern Europe after World War II; the second was the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Each step reminded Americans that Moscow felt that it had an inherent right to dominate surrounding regions and had no qualms about using force to see that it got what it wanted. Both of these episodes led to American military build-ups and strengthened resolve, thus restoring the containment of Russia. But this latest wake-up may […]

Strengthening Britain’s bilateral relationships throughout Latin America has become a strategic priority under the U.K.’s current government. Nowhere is this more evident than in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, where recent visits by senior British officials highlight enhanced collaboration in the spheres of security and economic cooperation. Yet as Britain looks to build upon these successes, it must overcome some major hurdles if it is to truly unlock the wealth of potential opportunities available to it throughout the wider region. In February 2014, U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague undertook his first official trip to Colombia, marking the latest episode in what […]

Russia’s military and diplomatic opposition to the overthrow of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has raised concern that Russia might cut off Ukraine’s gas as it has in previous disputes, disrupting broader European energy markets. In an email interview, Keith Smith, a former U.S. ambassador to Lithuania who is currently a distinguished resident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, explained how Russia’s leverage over energy markets has changed since it last cut off gas supplies to Ukraine. The views expressed here are Smith’s and do not represent those of any organization. WPR: How has Ukraine’s position in the […]

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an accomplished fact, but many questions remain unanswered regarding the crisis. Perhaps the most important of these are how far Russia will go, what steps the West can take to resist Russian belligerence and what economic consequences will ensue from Russia’s actions. Thus far, Russian forces have only occupied the Crimean peninsula. While it is possible they will go no farther, it remains unclear under what conditions Russian troops would end their occupation. Moscow might decide to occupy the region for a while simply to pry various concessions from Kiev, such as a pledge […]

On Feb. 15, Lebanon formed a new government after 11 months of political deadlock. Yet the real significance and impact this will have on Lebanon’s political stability is very much unclear. The new Cabinet allows Lebanon’s main parties—the Shiite militant group Hezbollah and the Sunni Future Movement—to resume their political fight inside the government rather than on the street, although one does not preclude the other. However, several points of contention remain between the two sides that could obstruct further progress. For the new Cabinet to start addressing a host of pressing challenges, including the election of a new president […]

In the past few years, India has been strengthening its civil nuclear cooperation with countries bordering China. This trend, when taken together with India’s interest in marketing surface-to-surface missiles in Asia, clearly signals a shift in New Delhi’s policy stance. China’s latest wave of nuclear exceptionalism toward Pakistan seems to be pushing India to abandon its traditional self-imposed limits on trade in strategic technology, with the result that India is now willing to broaden strategic technology options for countries on China’s periphery in order to secure Indian geoeconomic interests. New Delhi’s approach is somewhat reminiscent of the early 1980s, when […]

The Ukrainian crisis has aroused an ugly array of thugs, from the snipers who fired on protesters in Kiev to pro-Russian biker gangs. But numerous multilateral organizations have been implicated too. The crisis began when former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych nixed a trade deal with the European Union in November. Three months later, with Yanukovych in exile and Russia having abruptly seized control of Crimea over the weekend, many more international institutions risk being entangled in the conflict. They range from the Group of Eight (G-8) and United Nations to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). A […]