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The people of Spain are now living through the fifth year of a deep economic recession, experiencing a level of unemployment that would have seemed utterly inconceivable in the decades before the bottom fell out. Government measures and European Union prescriptions find little popular support. But despite countless protests and furious debate, the Spanish are becoming disillusioned with all the options before them. As the recession lingers and the hardships intensify, the answer increasingly is “none of the above.” For the unloved government, the apparent lack of appealing alternatives is the most tangible reason for solace. In contrast to the […]

This month, the Brazilian government announced plans to employ some 6,000 Cuban doctors as part of an effort to strengthen Brazil-Cuba bilateral ties. In an email interview, John M. Kirk, a professor at Canada’s Dalhousie University who co-wrote a book on Cuban medical internationalism and is finishing a second on Cuban medical cooperation, explained the history of Cuba’s medical diplomacy and its importance to Cuba’s slowly reforming economy. WPR: What is the extent of Cuba’s medical diplomacy in terms of numbers of doctors sent abroad and the benefits Cuba receives in return? John M. Kirk: Cuba has been sending medical […]

Last week, Efrain Rios Montt, the former Guatemalan dictator who ruled the country during the most violent years of its civil war, was found guilty of crimes against humanity and genocide and sentenced to 80 years in prison. Guatemalan courts only recently began prosecutions for crimes committed during the civil war, which lasted from 1960 to 1996. Rios Montt was convicted of overseeing the massacre of some 1,771 villagers of Guatemala’s Maya Ixil indigenous group during his 1982-1983 dictatorship. And the conviction may yet be overturned. Reuters has reported that a judge who presided over earlier hearings said she could […]

Last week’s congressional hearing on the September 2012 attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, reignited the controversy over allegations that the Obama administration covered up or lied about details of the attack. The dispute will consume Washington for some time, ultimately influencing President Barack Obama’s effectiveness during his second term as well as the way the U.S. military responds to future crises. There are three big questions about the Benghazi attacks: Did the Obama administration, particularly the State Department, take prudent steps to assure the security of embassy personnel in Libya before the attacks? Has the administration […]

The full motivation for China’s recent incursion into Indian territory along their disputed border in eastern Kashmir is as yet unclear. But the incident brings to the fore the issue of unpredictability in Chinese foreign policy implementation and Beijing’s frequent recourse to low-level aggression, often deployed to shape the backdrop to formal diplomatic negotiations. With specific regard to India, despite a general trend toward deepening cooperation, the incident lowers hopes that China’s new leadership would move to clear up uncertainty in bilateral relations and create a firmer basis for cultural and economic exchange. On April 15, in the Depsang Valley […]

Over the past decade, Latin America has generally performed very well. Regional economic growth has been fairly robust, averaging 5.5 percent from 2003-2008 and bouncing back from the global downturn better than most experts anticipated. Politically, several countries have made important democratic strides, with Brazil and Mexico standing out. And in contrast to the wave of market reforms in the 1990s, when the Washington Consensus held sway, governments have sought to complement pragmatic approaches to economic growth with an increased emphasis on the social agenda and the inclusion of marginalized groups. Sound policymaking and deepening concern with social disparities have […]

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Mohammed Morsi, a former Muslim Brotherhood leader and Egypt’s first post-Arab Spring president, even as Russia continued to back Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus against an assorted opposition that includes the Syrian branch of the Brotherhood. This apparent contradiction illustrates the challenges Russia is facing in the post-Arab Spring Middle East. Like virtually everyone else, Moscow was surprised by the groundswell of change that began in the Arab world in early 2011. Experts advising the Russian government call this a tectonic shift and compare its impact to that of the two defining periods […]

The victory by the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, in this weekend’s national elections offers the United States a timely opportunity to develop and execute a strategy for improving the deeply troubled relationship with Pakistan. Polling data show that Pakistanis have extremely negative views of U.S. policies and blame Americans for many of the difficulties bedeviling the country. In addition to irritation at Washington’s close ties to India and its use of drones on Pakistani territory, Pakistanis believe that U.S. policies contributed to the rise of militant Islamist groups within their borders, and that […]

To be living in Europe and working on development at the moment is something of a schizophrenic existence. On the one hand, European countries are facing austerity, cuts and recession. On the other, supposedly less “developed” countries are experiencing growth, expansion and improvement. It’s a context that makes the discussions about the next set of global development goals very interesting indeed. Where exactly are the problems in the world that our new goals should fix, and what exactly are they? Twenty years ago, when the last set of development goals was agreed upon in the form of the U.N. Millennium […]

Does international trade liberalization reduce poverty? The question is an important and relevant one. It was high on the agenda in the late-1990s—think of the Seattle riots against the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1999—and after a decade or so of quiescence it is starting to worry policymakers again. Fortunately, it permits a fairly definite answer, one that surprises many people. While there clearly are exceptions, the answer is “in the long run and on average, almost always, yes, trade liberalization reduces poverty.” The terms “long run” and “average” are not weasel words, but they do mask a lot of […]

The withdrawal of Kurdish militants from Turkey across the border into Iraq is highlighting the role of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in regional geopolitics ahead of KRG elections planned for September. In an email interview, Michael M. Gunter, a professor of political science at Tennessee Technological University who focuses on Kurdish issues, discussed the state of internal Kurdish politics. WPR: What is the political landscape in Iraqi Kurdistan ahead of the September elections? Michael M. Gunter: To begin with, I would not assume that the September elections will be held as scheduled. These elections might again be postponed, as […]

Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is beginning talks to form a new government in Pakistan after winning the country’s general elections held over the weekend. Regional actors are already reacting to the results, with BBC News reporting that Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said he hoped for a “new course” in India-Pakistan relations. Shehzad Qazi, a research associate at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, spoke with Trend Lines about the foreign policy implications of the transition. “Sharif has come in at an interesting point in terms of the implementation of changed policy toward India and Afghanistan,” said Qazi, […]

Does the U.S. genuinely want its European allies to police their geopolitical backyard? When it comes to the Syrian crisis, the answer seems to be no. Last week, the Obama administration signaled that it intends to set the diplomatic pace over Syria as the U.S. and Russia announced joint plans for a peace conference. This was not only an accommodating gesture to the Russians—who, as I argued in this column last week, have made immense political capital out of the conflict—but also a setback for Britain and France, which have agitated for a more hawkish Western line, including arming the […]

A recent series of violent incidents between opposition protesters and security forces in Conakry highlights the challenges impeding Guinea’s political transition since the death in 2008 of Lansana Conte, Guinea’s leader for 24 years. Despite some progress toward stability, the outcome of the transition remains uncertain. The military coup launching the transition soon mobilized the civilian population into opposition; an unprovoked attack by members of the security forces in September 2009 on a protest rally in a Conakry stadium, including mass rapes, triggered a slow-motion progression toward elections. The maiming of junta leader Dadis Camara by a military rival opened […]

The United States and Russia have announced a diplomatic initiative that would bring together representatives from the Syrian regime and opposition forces to negotiate a framework to end the Syrian conflict. Russia previously demonstrated little desire to help forge an agreement between the Syrian regime and opposition, but now seems committed to current efforts to form a transitional government. David Hartwell, principal Middle East and North Africa Analyst at IHS Jane’s, emphasized that the current round of diplomacy is significant as much for relations between the U.S. and Russia as for Syria. “If this entails Americans and Russians working very […]

John Kerry undertook his maiden voyage to Moscow as U.S. secretary of state this week, and the initial impression is that his visit was a success. There was a perceptible thaw in what, over the past year, has been described as a much more contentious relationship. U.S. officials have focused on the prospect of a “more intensified dialogue with the Russians” that can now take place in the aftermath of the presidential elections in both Russia and the United States. Building upon the foundation laid last month by National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, Kerry continued the process of leaving behind […]

Talk of America’s “pivot” toward Asia echoes around graduate school classrooms and foreign ministry corridors. The Obama administration believes the United States has overinvested in the Middle East and underinvested in the Asia-Pacific, where the bulk of its future opportunities and challenges lie. So now America is rebalancing its investment portfolio. A defense white paper from America’s most reliable ally in the region, Australia, should therefore be closely read in Washington. The message from the Australian Government’s 2013 Defense White Paper is that if the United States is rebalancing, then so is Australia. This white paper is very cautious in […]