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During a recent visit to Vietnam by Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung called for the enhancement of trade and political ties between the two countries. In an email interview, Carlyle A. Thayer, an emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defense Force Academy, discussed Russia-Vietnam relations. WPR: What is the recent history of Russia-Vietnam relations? Carlyle A. Thayer: When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Moscow pressed Vietnam for repayment of debts totaling $1.7 billion, and the two sides took nearly a decade to negotiate a settlement. In 1994, they […]

After the weekend’s bloody clash between Israeli security forces and Palestinian protesters in the Golan Heights, Israel claimed the violence was being fomented by Syrian President Bashar Assad in an attempt to divert attention from Syria’s own anti-government uprising and his heavy-handed attempts to crush it. While such assertions may be impossible to prove, close observers says Syria suffers no shortage of motives to try to convince Israel of the danger that could lay ahead should Assad’s government collapse. “Basically what Assad is saying to the Israelis is, ‘If I go down, you’re entering the realm of the unknown with […]

DENPASAR, Indonesia — Largely ignored abroad, a new intelligence reform bill currently being debated by Indonesia’s parliament could have serious repercussions for the archipelagic country’s security and its process of democratization. The long-overdue bill is a step in the right direction, since intelligence operations in Indonesia are currently flimsily regulated by a presidential decree. Still, the proposal currently on the table is hardly ideal. Indonesia faces numerous security threats, including terrorism, human trafficking, weapon proliferations and arms smuggling. A competent intelligence apparatus is thus vital for national as well as regional — if not global — security. The bill aims […]

Taiwanese exporters are anticipating the arrival of July 1 with some anxiety. On that day, the free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union and South Korea, Taiwan’s archrival in trade, will come into effect. As 70-75 percent of Taiwan’s exports to the EU overlap with those from South Korea, and as Brussels is set to lift import tariffs on 93.9 percent of Korean products within the deal’s first year, it is all but certain that Taiwanese products will suffer in the European market. But the export-dependent island’s plight does not end there. In terms of FTAs, South Korea, which […]

According to a coordinated series of leaks to the media last week, the Pentagon is in the process of finalizing its first formal cybersecurity strategy. Several unnamed Defense Department officials have confirmed that the 30-page classified document will be completed later this month, with the Pentagon expected to release a declassified 12-page version as well. The leaking, which was deliberate, may be a trial balloon to gauge domestic and international response to the strategy’s tenets. That way the text could subsequently be revised, especially when it undergoes further White House review to ensure it harmonizes with the administration’s overall cybersecurity […]

Kuwait and Iran recently reinstated their ambassadors to one another, after having recalled them amid accusations that Kuwait had uncovered an Iranian spy ring. In an email interview, W. Andrew Terrill, a research professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College and the author of “Kuwaiti National Security and the U.S.-Kuwaiti Strategic Relationship After Saddam,” discussed Kuwait-Iran relations. WPR: What is the recent history of Iran-Kuwait relations? W. Andrew Terrill: Kuwait enthusiastically backed Iraq during the second half of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, although the Kuwaiti leadership deeply regretted this decision after Saddam Hussein invaded their […]

Uganda recently held talks with Southern Sudan about importing oil from the soon-to-be-independent state. Meanwhile, Sudan engaged in broad-ranging talks with two of its western neighbors, the Central African Republic and Chad. In an email interview, Jonathan Temin, director of the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Sudan program, discussed the regional implications of south Sudan’s secession. WPR: How do Sudan’s sub-Saharan neighbors view South Sudan’s upcoming independence? Jonathan Temin: Historically, Sudan’s sub-Saharan neighbors, especially Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia, have been supportive of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and its political wing, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, as well as of […]

As the United States debates just how much more effort it wants to put into the Afghanistan-Pakistan sinkhole, evidence mounts of the need to pursue a strategic pivot back toward the Middle East, where the Arab Spring is increasingly threatened by a Persian winter of revolutionary discontent. For some time now, Iran has been showing signs of mounting internal divisions between competing hardline factions led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But it has also become more desperate about asserting its alleged leadership of the region’s ongoing wave of uprisings, including a far more active […]

As the popular uprisings against authoritarian regimes continue in several Arab countries, those countries’ neighbors and the wider international community are being forced to deal with a new crisis: the growing number of conflict refugees. During the past five months, thousands of Libyans have fled to Tunisia and Egypt. Many have also tried to cross the Mediterranean into Europe, with some dying at sea. The continuing violence in Syria has also forced thousands of Syrians to seek refuge in Lebanon. The situation in Syria may yet escalate into a full-fledged sectarian conflict between the majority Sunnis and the ruling Alawis. […]

The appointment of U.S. Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff inspired some debate this week over why President Barack Obama passed over U.S. Marine Gen. James “Hoss” Cartwright — a previous front-runner for the post. But David Johnson, executive director of the Center for Advanced Defense Studies in Washington, says the decision to go with Dempsey was something of a no-brainer, since Dempsey stands a significantly better chance of reconciling different factions within the Pentagon over the issue of looming budget cuts. “He fits in very well both with the need to harmonize […]

In May, lawmakers from the European Union and the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific group urged Madagascar to install a transitional leadership ahead of planned elections. In an email interview, Stephen Ellis, a Madagascar expert at the African Studies Center in Leiden, the Netherlands, discussed Madagascar’s ongoing political crisis. WPR: What is the background of Madagascar’s political crisis? Stephen Ellis: The immediate origin of Madagascar’s political crisis was the forced resignation of the elected president, Marc Ravalomanana, on March 17, 2009, in an effective military coup. Ravalomanana had become unpopular — not only within Madagascar’s political elite, but also among aid […]

LIMA, Peru — As Peruvians return to the polls this Sunday for a second round of voting in an extremely tight presidential race, the outcome will likely be determined by voters’ fear and mistrust of the losing candidate rather than by enthusiasm for the winner and his or her platform. The latest polls show a technical tie between conservative Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori, 36, and leftist retired military officer Ollanta Humala, 48, with Fujimori ahead by less than the margin of error in most recent polls. Both candidates have striven to appeal to moderate voters while making populist campaign promises, but […]

It is time for President Barack Obama to initiate an informal, tripartite dialogue with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev about stabilizing the global price of oil. Leaving the decision in the hands of speculators has not served the interests of any of these three countries. At midweek, the price, while coming down, still stood higher than $100 a barrel, with Brent crude currently trading at roughly $112 a barrel. Counterintuitively, oil producers are hoping the price descends further, because if oil gets too expensive, customers begin looking for other sources of energy. Last week, speaking […]

One of the less-reported developments at last week’s G-8 summit was Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s about-face on the Libyan crisis. Medvedev called on Moammar Gadhafi to step down and added that Russia will not offer a safe haven to the beleaguered Libyan leader. Russia has previously been critical of NATO’s bombing campaign in Libya, and with reports now indicating that Moscow seeks to play a mediation role toward negotiating Gadhafi’s exit, close observers are questioning what prompted the policy shift. In an email interview with Trend Lines this week, Richard Weitz, who heads the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the […]

In May, France and the U.K. ratified the Defense and Security Cooperation Treaty, marking a major realignment of the countries’ post-financial crisis defense policies. In an email interview, Jolyon Howorth, an expert in European defense policy at Yale University, discussed the U.K.-France defense treaty. WPR: What are the main provisions of the treaty? Jolyon Howorth: The treaty aims to maximize the military potential of the two countries in terms of capacity, procurement and deployment. It envisages the development of a joint expeditionary force with land and naval elements; an integrated aircraft-carrier group allowing planes from each country to land on […]

AMSTERDAM — Backpackers around the world took notice when the Dutch government announced plans to ban sales of marijuana to tourists in the Netherlands. Some observers viewed the decision as part of a definitive move to the right in Dutch politics. The reality, however, is not so simple; the Netherlands is not about to become a conservative country. Rather than a move to the right, the latest news is one more piece of evidence that the old distinctions between left and right can no longer tell the full story in Dutch politics. Like in much of Europe, politics in the […]

When Brazil tried to join the ranks of the world’s diplomatic heavyweights, it did so loudly. In an attempt last year to convince the U.N. Security Council not to impose a third round of sanctions on Iran for refusing to freeze its uranium enrichment program, Brazil teamed up with Turkey to negotiate a nuclear fuel swap deal with Tehran. The maneuver failed: The council, under pressure from the U.S., U.K. and France, disregarded the agreement and went ahead with sanctions. It is perhaps no surprise, then, that when Dilma Rousseff took over as president of Brazil in January, she distanced […]