Pirates operating off the coast of Somalia have resumed a disturbingly high rate of activity recently, despite hopes that the arrival of more foreign warships in the Gulf of Aden had discouraged the regional threat. Following a lull in late 2008, Somali pirates carried out almost 100 attacks during the first three months of 2009. The growing number and expanded range of these incidents has threatened important trade and transit routes connecting Africa, Asia, and Europe to Persian Gulf oil as well as other valuable commodities. Although the number of deaths directly attributable to the pirates has remained small, their […]

President Barack Obama didn’t look into Dimitry Medvedev’s eyes and claim that he saw the Russian president’s soul at the G-20 summit in early April. But the meeting between the two leaders has potentially set the stage for a more pragmatic relationship between Washington and Moscow. Substantial policy differences still separate the two powers, but the dynamics of the U.S.-Russia relationship have shifted away from the mutual bitterness that arose out of the August 2008 war in the Caucasus. However, although energy is not a major part of the public discourse on U.S.-Russian relations, it is a latent factor that […]

For years, analysts have argued that the Nabucco natural gas pipeline — a U.S.-backed effort to transport gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe via Turkey, thus bypassing Russia — needed to accept gas from Iran if it was to be economically viable. But Iranian involvement in the project, which is intended to reduce European energy dependence on Russian gas exports, has been anathema for U.S. policymakers: Washington’s efforts to thwart Iran’s ambitions have so far overridden its desire to thwart Russia’s. That may be changing. The White House has appointed a new envoy for Eurasian Energy, Richard Morningstar, who […]

No president could restructure U.S. national security strategy in 100 days. It is possible to announce new strategic concepts and goals, and to make some time-urgent changes. In practice, however, it takes months to translate strategic concepts into detailed plans and budgets, and even the most urgent actions take time to implement. A major restructuring of U.S. procurement or military end strength can take several years to implement, and the same is true of any major reorganization of a key department and the interagency process. Changing America’s Image That said, having inherited one of the worst presidential legacies of the […]

‘Tis the season of snap judgments on President Obama’s first 100 days in office, replete with scorecards, grading sheets, and cartoon thumbs pointing up or down. The temptation with such analyses is simply to generate a laundry list of accomplishments, as if a crowded agenda or a flurry of decisions connotes successful leadership. Under normal circumstances, the key measure tends to be “traction,” as in, Did the new administration hit the ground running on issues A through Z? But these aren’t normal times. America and the world are experiencing the sort of once-in-a-lifetime restructuring of international affairs that only a […]

Throughout its history, America has experienced many kinds of bubbles. The 19th century brought us a railroad bubble, the 20th, an Internet bubble. Now, 100 days into a new presidency, America has replaced the housing bubble that opened the 21st century with an Obama bubble. But while bubbles usually convey negative connotations, the “Obama Bubble” is one that we in America — and the rest of the world — desperately need. When George W. Bush came into office, the United States was still perceived by most countries as an ascendant nation — one reviving the infrastructure of its post-World War […]

Obama’s First Steps: What Comes After the ‘Listening Phase’?

President Barack Obama entered office with such an inflated cloud of expectations hanging over his head that it is not surprising that some are criticizing him now for his “failures.” After a mere 100 or so days in office, why hasn’t he solved the global financial crisis, reversed global warming and brought peace to the Middle East? On the other hand, some of his partisans are wont to claim major foreign policy successes for the new administration because of the president’s personal popularity and the tumultuous acclaim he has received during his overseas visits. Yet during his first few months […]

The first hundred days is an artificial benchmark for assessing presidential performance. In foreign policy, Barack Obama has not had time to do much, and the moves he has made have yet to produce clear consequences. He has, however, set a tone. It is reminiscent of the approach George W. Bush proposed in his 2000 campaign debate with Al Gore when he said, “If we’re an arrogant nation, they’ll resent us. If we’re a humble nation . . . they’ll welcome us.” Whether Mr. Bush’s foreign policy would have embodied that prescription had Osama bin Laden’s minions not struck the […]

CHIANG MAI, Thailand — Thailand calls itself the Land of Smiles, and is known for its tropical beaches, beautiful mountains, good food and friendly people. But that may soon change. While the happy-go-lucky image of Thailand may be hard for many to shake, political observers — and the government — are beginning to take the possibility of a civil war much more seriously. On April 21, Jakrapob Penkair — a key leader of the opposition United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and reputedly the man behind this month’s violent protests in Bangkok and Pattaya — announced in a BBC […]

Dear Ambassador Hill, Congratulations on your long-delayed confirmation as U.S. ambassador to Iraq. By now you’re probably on the ground in Baghdad, being overwhelmed with briefings from the embassy staff and the military. We trust that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his government have also presented you with their agenda for what Iraq wants from the United States. You are being pulled in many different directions, with everyone vying to attract your attention to their own special needs and issues. Iraq is sure to test your formidable diplomatic skills. The ad hoc bargains and ceasefires negotiated by your predecessor, […]

The top item at President Barack Obama’s two-day mini-summit with Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani leader Asif Ali Zardari at the White House this week will be “cooperation.” The agenda is also likely to include a pile of other challenges now facing South Asia — like the 40 percent spike in civilian deaths in Afghanistan last year, the popular backlash in Pakistan against the United States’ use of drone missile attacks, and the floor-to-ceiling corruption that pervades President Karzai’s government. With all that to talk about, maybe the summit should last the whole week. Because the three men would […]

MOSCOW — The Russian government has stepped up its efforts to keep social unrest in check as the financial crisis rages on across the country. Russia’s economy has been among the hardest hit globally, with the unemployment rate reaching the 10 percent threshold in March, its highest rate in the last nine years. Both government officials and critics in Russia and abroad have expressed public doubts about the economy’s ability to bounce back in such an adverse economic climate. The International Monetary Fund forecasts a 6 percent contraction in 2009. With the confidence of the oil-boom years a casualty of […]

Strategic Posture Review: Australia

Get a .pdf version of this report. Australia sits within two geostrategic landscapes: It is an active member of the global Anglo-American alliance, while also being part of the Asia-Pacific region. In the past, Australia’s cultural, political and economic referents linked it closely to Britain and the United States. In terms of security, Australia was historically “protected” by the British Empire. With the empire’s rapid unraveling from 1942 onward, followed by Britain’s realignment with Europe, Australia sought protection from the United States. However, Australia is also geographically part of the Asia Pacific. While Australia was able to isolate itself from […]

ERITREAN AUTHORITIES ACCUSED OF MASS ABUSES: Eritrean authorities have turned the small country in northeast Africa into a prison for the country’s 4 million residents, Human Rights Watch charged in a 95-page report (.pdf) released April 16. According to the report, the Eritrean government has orchestrated a multiyear campaign characterized by serious human rights violations that include arbitrary arrests, torture, dismal detention conditions and prolonged military conscription. The government has placed rigid restrictions on a host of other social, political and religious rights, and dissent is not tolerated. “Eritrea has become one of the most closed and repressive states in […]

With many of the world’s navies engaged in anti-pirate patrols off the coastal waters of Somalia, it’s no surprise to find French, German and Spanish frigates among them. The frigates are there, though, not under their respective national commands, but rather under that of a joint EU naval force, whose mission is to protect World Food Program vessels delivering food aid to Somalia, as well as commercial and other vessels threatened by pirates in the Gulf of Aden. While EU NAVFOR Somalia is the EU’s first maritime operation, it is not its first military operation, whether in Africa or beyond. […]

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