A Return to Political Normalcy Would Work Against Thaksin

HONG KONG — Global leaders — meeting far and wide from the UN General Assembly in New York to the IMF annual summit in Singapore — were quick to condemn the military coup in Thailand that ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. But the reality is the coup could actually end months of political uncertainty and benefit the country over the longer run. This was reflected on Asian stock and foreign exchange markets, where benchmarks fell in only a limited fashion in the immediate aftermath of the coup, with investors sensing the end of a difficult and messy era in Thai […]

With the death of a leading human rights activist in prison last week, Turkmenistan has left no doubt that the widely derided personality cult of the country’s President-for-life Saparmurat Niyazov and his iron-handed tactics are anything but a laughing matter. Family members identified the body of Ogulspur Muradova, who died only three weeks after being sentenced in a widely condemned trial. Authorities initially denied Muradova’s family access to the body while insisting they sign off on a death certificate. Access was granted only after the family sought out the help of foreign diplomats. After viewing the corpse, family members reported […]

Thai Coup: the Likely U.S. Response

On Tuesday, the Thai military seized Bangkok, ousting controversial leader Thaksin Shinawatra and seizing control of the nation. The lack of details has delayed strong international reaction. John Bolton, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, released a cautious statement. “We think it’s important,” he said, “that we have peace in the streets in Bangkok, and that their constitutional processes be upheld.” The statement is vague for a reason. The United States has interests in both embracing and condemning the coup. In the final analysis, however, it has a greater interest in condemning the coup and returning Thaksin to power. […]

BANGKOK, Thailand — For a time during the dark, stormy night it was feared that rival military factions might clash on the rain-swept streets of Thailand’s sprawling capital for control of the city following a coup during Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s absence at the UN General Assembly. But by dawn Wednesday it became apparent that despite calls by Thaksin in New York for the arrest of the coup leaders, no one was riding to his rescue. Pro-Thaksin elements in the military, police and political hierarchy, including the army supreme commander who had talked directly with the mercurial political leader by […]

Bush and Ahmadinejad Don’t Meet, But Exchange Broadsides

UNITED NATIONS — U.S. efforts to avert a close encounter between President George Bush and his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the United Nations seem so far to have been successful, but that did not stop the two leaders from exchanging verbal broadsides from the podium of the General Assembly. Predictably, both leaders used their respective speeches on the opening day of the 61st session of the world body to assert their contrary positions on Tehran’s nuclear development program, which western governments increasingly believe the Iranians will use to develop nuclear weapons. Addressing the Iranian people, the president said Iran’s […]

In Colombia, Success of AUC Peace Process Depends on Reconciliation

BOGOTÁ, Colombia — There are few countries in the world that are in the midst of an armed conflict while also facing a post-conflict situation. Today, Colombia, the third most populous country in Latin America, is confronting such a challenge. Three years ago, Colombia’s President, Alvaro Uribe, initiated a peace process with the Self- Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), an umbrella organization of right-wing paramilitary factions. Since then, nearly 32,000 fighters have laid down their arms. In July 2005, the controversial Justice and Peace Law was passed which set out the framework for demobilization, the punishments paramilitaries would receive and […]

DOLORES HIDALGO, Mexico — Perhaps hoping to avoid conflict and a political storm at the Sept. 15 independence celebrations in Mexico City’s Zocalo (main square) — the usual site of such festivities — President Vicente Fox bolted for Dolores Hidalgo in his home state of Guanajuato to deliver the annual grito, a reenactment of parish priest Miguel Hidalgo’s call for independence from Spanish rule. Stormy conditions, though, followed the president. The skies opened less than an hour before the 11 p.m. ceremony began, soaking the revelers gathered in the town center. Later, lightning crashed while Fox delivered the grito from […]

The Common Article 3 Debate: What’s at Stake

So, what is all the fuss about these Geneva Conventions? Considering that the subject of compliance with these treaties not only led every Sunday morning weekly news program, but also is the cause of the so called “rebellion” by a group of highly influential Republican Senators, many are no doubt asking this question. The answer is in some ways complex, in other ways quite simple, and now central to how the United States will frame the nature of the conflict we are struggling not only to win, but to understand. The Geneva Conventions — yes plural — are four treaties […]

SDEROT, Israel — On the surface, life in this Israeli town of 24,000 looks peaceful. The quiet streets, with intersections marked by neat traffic circles, each decorated with a charming sculpture, seem sedate under the harsh sun of Israel’s Negev desert in the south of the country. Agricultural fields in the distance add to a sense of pastoral peace. Suddenly, the Red Dawn warning system jolts Sderot back into the awful reality of life here: Another Qassam rocket has been fired from nearby Gaza. The entire town has 15 seconds to seek shelter or risk death. A moment later, the […]

Six weeks in hell — or, more precisely, in Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan. That sums up the brutal fighting endured by the NATO troops who took over from U.S. troops in the area at the end of July. But while British, Canadian and Dutch troops have had an unexpectedly hot reception, pleas from the area British commander calling for other NATO countries to “pull their weight” and commit 2,500 more troops to the southern war have fallen on deaf ears. Though 1,000 more Polish troops were announced last week as “on way” to the region, it had nothing to […]

BANGOK, Thailand — The shadow of China and India looming over them is propelling ten much smaller nations of Southeast Asia to fast-track their heady dream of creating a European-style union — a single market and, perhaps, some form of political cohesiveness. The prospects are tantalizingly attractive: a region of 530 million people stretching from the Bay of Bengal and the borders of India to the west Pacific, competing against the economic juggernauts of China and India for foreign investment and a place at the global decision-making dinner table, instead of being one of the dishes. But a new target […]

In a display of optimism for its prospects at landing a huge U.S. Air Force aerial refueling tanker contract, Northrop Grumman Corp. Sept. 13 hosted representatives of some 100 companies that could become suppliers to the company if it wins. With a likely price tag of at least $20 billion to build a minimum of 100 refueling aircraft, the competition is fierce among defense contractors to land the order. As the only U.S.-based aircraft manufacturer, The Boeing Co. once looked to be a shoe-in for the contract. But now Northrop Grumman, partnering with the European firm that owns Airbus, is […]

Commentary Week in Review: the U.S.-South Korea Alliance

Mexico’s election-crisis, the U.S.-South Korea marriage and China’s economic tap-dance (or romp) through Africa all got op-ed attention in the world’s English-language press this week. Terrorism and the war in Iraq were also woven into an ongoing flood of commentary prompted by the passing of the five-year anniversary of 9/11. But it was a handful of off-beat articles that grabbed us most, beginning with Carlos Alberto Montaner’s reminder in the Sept. 12 Miami Herald that this week marked the start of a meeting in Cuba of world leaders associated with “a curious diplomatic entity known as the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).” […]

New Oil and Gas Pipelines Threaten Russia’s Regional Energy Dominance

After the collapse of the Soviet empire, the Caspian states of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan generated a great deal of excitement because of their oil and gas fields, about which little was known. Despite falling oil prices, uncertain reserve sizes and a non-existent legal framework, an extraordinary volume of international investment poured into the region in 1997 and 1998. By 1999, more than 20 oil exploration contracts were signed in Azerbaijan alone, representing more than $30 billion in long-term capital investment and some $2.5 billion in committed investment. It was widely expected that the poorly explored, but high-potential Caspian oil reserves […]

SEVILLE, Spain — “Ridiculous! Nobody takes that seriously,” laughs Santiago, the young Spanish tourism executive, when asked to comment on Osama bin Laden´s references to reclaiming Spain´s once Moorish province of Andalusia. “The city of Seville expelled the Muslims in 1248, even before they were driven out of the rest of Andalusia. The threat is not worth discussing.” Bin Laden has in the past called for an Islamist takeover of what he calls “al-Andaluz” as the center of a restored Caliphate, a single Islamic state, one nation under Allah stretching from Indonesia to southern Spain that would contain 1.5 billion […]

Given the way events have been unfolding around Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian, one could understand why he might have simply wanted to go home. On Sept. 9, Chen went to his hometown in Taiwan’s Tainan County, a Democratic People’s Party (DPP) stronghold, to meet with a group of faithful supporters. The storm, meanwhile, was in the capital Taipei, more than 350 kilometers away, where tens of thousands of angry demonstrators, many dressed in red to reflect their outrage, gave Chen the thumbs-down during a sit-in outside the presidential palace. In Tainan County, Chen encountered a sit-in as well, but this […]

Kofi Annan’s term as secretary general of the United Nations will end on Dec. 31, and he is trying to make the most of the few months left. Annan has recently completed an eleven-day trip to a dozen countries in the Middle East and Europe, trying to elicit the widest support — from Israel to Iran — for the 15,000-strong UN peacekeeping mission to Southern Lebanon. The tour, which Annan described as the most strenuous and demanding of his career, is an attempt to conclude his eight-year tenure with a UN success in the Middle East, a region whose population […]

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