Briefing Archive

As the senior managing director of a technology firm that employs algorithms in their most complex forms, I spend a lot of time trying to explain, via nature-centric analogies, how these formulae work. The most cutting-edge algorithms are known as “genetic algorithms,” because they self-adapt their “recipes” through interactions with a wider environment of stimuli, thereby approximating evolutionary responses found in nature. The hardest part about explaining that to people comes from overcoming their bias toward unnatural silicon solutions, as opposed to the carbon-based pathways of discovery and adaptation through failure that define our human existence. Oddly enough, people tend […]

In terms of foreign policy rhetoric, the Mediterranean has always represented a “special” interest for Italy, in part due to its geographical location. But the amount of resources and commitment Rome has mobilized for its Mediterranean foreign policy has never been commensurate with its declared ambitions. In practice, Italy’s Mediterranean policy since the end of the Cold War has been a function of its bipolar domestic political system, and largely linked to the role Rome has tried to play in the other two, fundamental pillars of Italian interests: the transatlantic partnership and the process of European integration. Although far from […]

BOGOTÁ — If the opinion polls are any indication, Colombians will vote for continuity rather than change as the country elects its president in run-off voting on Sunday. Barring a major surprise, Juan Manuel Santos, former defense minister and heir-apparent to the hardline polices of outgoing conservative President Alvaro Uribe, is poised to become the next Colombian president. The latest polls give Santos a seemingly insurmountable lead of 66 percent to 27 percent, over his rival and two-time Bogotá mayor, Antanus Mockus. During first-round voting last month, Santos won nearly 47 percent of the vote, just shy of an outright […]

Will the Deepwater Horizon disaster, already 2010’s best candidate for the most significant “black swan” event, have a similar, long-lasting geopolitical impact as the Three Mile Island accident 30 years ago? If that mishap had not occurred, it’s very likely that the United States would have a vastly different, and superior, position vis-à-vis energy independence today. The U.S. could have moved down a similar path to that of France, which generates most of its electricity — some 78 percent — from nuclear power plants. Some of the side benefits the French enjoy as a result include much cleaner skies, since […]

With a smile, a wave and an exhortation to Kenya’s 38 million people that they alone controlled their future, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden left Nairobi on June 10 to represent the United States at the opening of the World Cup in South Africa. Reform is good, he said, and a planned vote on August 4 to overhaul the independence-era constitution is in the country’s best interest. “As you prepare to write a new history for your nation, resist those who try and divide you based on ethnicity, or religion, or region and above all, fear,” Biden said. His admonishments […]

BRUSSELS — With the euro plunging and budgets across the continent tightening, European Union member states are betting on an export-driven recovery from recession and the current debt crisis. A cheaper euro has allowed the eurozone export sector to regain competitiveness, as the common currency has fallen against the dollar from $1.50 to a four-year low of $1.20. At the same time, the eurozone’s external trade surplus showed a year-on-year increase in March, growing from €1.6 billion in 2009 to €4.5 billion this year. Year-on-year industrial production also grew by €9.5 billion from April 2009 to April 2010. The euro’s […]

In the aftermath of its disastrous raid on the Mavi Marmara, part of a flotilla that tried to break the Israeli-Egyptian blockade of Gaza, Israel has come under intense pressure to lift the embargo of the Hamas-run territory. The decision of how to handle Gaza under Hamas rule is an extraordinarily complicated one for many political, strategic and humanitarian reasons. In fact, there is one aspect of the embargo that many of its presumably peace-loving opponents fail to note: Ending the blockade of Gaza could kill the chances for peace. There is a reason why Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas […]

DENPASAR, Indonesia — Six weeks after violent standoffs between Thailand’s Red Shirt opposition and government forces left 89 people dead and roughly 2,000 wounded, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva seems to have learned little from the recent past and is wasting another chance to work toward a stable reconciliation in the crisis-plagued country. The last such opportunity arose in April 2009, after the Red Shirts’ protests turned violent for the first time. The subsequent crackdown resulted in 25 people killed, including five soldiers, and more than 800 others wounded. Then, too, Abhisit promised to resolve animosity between rival groups and foster […]

The new space craft’s launch occurred without much fanfare. On April 22, the U.S. Air Force’s X-37B prototype roared into orbit atop a rocket launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida. Some 15 years in development, the X-37’s technology, performance and purpose all are cloaked in mystery. Two months after the unmanned vehicle’s launch, it is still in orbit, performing its unspecified tasks behind the military’s veil of silence and ambiguity. That has caused concern among potential rivals of the U.S. The X-37, which looks like a quarter-scale Space Shuttle, is just 29 feet long from nose to tail and boasts […]

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has become commonplace to write of a new “Great Game” in Central Asia, pitting Russia, China, and NATO countries led by the U.S in a race for influence and access to the region’s energy and other resources. But despite all the worries about the potential for international conflict, the distinctive feature of the current crisis in Kyrgyzstan is the reluctance of all the major powers to intervene there. The riots in southern Kyrgyzstan, which first broke out Thursday, have now left hundreds of dead and thousands of injured, according to the latest […]

HO CHI MINH CITY, Vietnam — China’s continued military expansion has placed Vietnam squarely on the back foot, prompting Hanoi to engage in a delicate balancing act meant to shore up its own regional influence and allay the fears of an anti-Beijing faction at home. To achieve that, Hanoi has sought to appease its own generals and enhance national defense through a series of major arms deals with Russia worth billions of dollars. The most notable weapons purchases are six Kilo-class submarines and up to 20 Su-30 fighter-bombers. Hanoi is also busy enticing Russia into its oil and gas industry. […]

Judging by the atmospherics on display during last week’s inaugural U.S.-India Strategic Dialogue, the bilateral relationship between the two countries appears to be on solid footing. U.S. Under Secretary for Public Affairs William Burns called the relationship “one of the defining partnerships of the 21st century,” while U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke of a joint responsibility to “determine the course of the world.” U.S. President Barack Obama even made a surprise visit at the dialogue’s reception, and announced that he would visit New Delhi in November. Yet this flowery rhetoric masks the complex realities of what has been […]

The World Cup, which began on Friday, comes at a time when South Africa, regarded in some circles as a first-world country in a third-world continent, has been on a steady slide in all aspects of its national identity.Over and above all the sporting and cultural benefits that come with hosting the world’s most-lucrative sporting event, South Africa hopes to use the accompanying high profile to mend its increasingly fractious politics, a deteriorating economy and a social system that is becoming more dysfunctional. In its first decade after apartheid, South Africa rode high on a wave of international goodwill, thanks […]

A lot of national security experts would like a lot more fire — and firepower — from our president. Op-ed columnists across America worry that our friends no longer trust us and that our enemies no longer fear us. President Barack Obama’s quest for more-equitable burden-sharing among great powers seems to be getting us nowhere, so why bother with more-equitable benefit-sharing? But before attacking the Obama administration’s coolly rational — dare I say “lawyerly” — take on great-power politics, let’s first remember what got us to this point. Bush-Cheney’s “It’s better to be feared than respected” tear nearly tore up […]

BEIJING — The sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan has lent further weight to the argument that Washington’s current North Korea strategy is having little success in controlling the errant communist state. President Barack Obama’s recent National Security Strategy was surprisingly vague on the issue, and the predictable U.S.-South Korean displays of naval strength in the aftermath of the sinking suggest no imminent policy reorientation from the White House. This continued faith in a strategy that has shown no tangible results — described by one analyst as the “definition of insanity” — has been further challenged by recent indications […]

The new Iran sanctions resolution cleared the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday by a vote of 12-2, with all five permanent members voting in favor. Does its passage represent a “diplomatic victory” for the Obama administration, as some have claimed? Or have the measures been so “watered down,” as others argue, that they are not likely to be effective in changing Iran’s course of action? And how significant is Russia’s apparent change of heart, ultimately supporting a fourth round of sanctions that it initially opposed? To answer those questions, the vote at Turtle Bay needs to be put into a […]

It is not surprising that discussions with government officials from member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council often dwell heavily on security threats. Terrorism remains a persistent concern of theirs even if some of the urgency they feel has passed. A conventionally armed Iran is a constant source of worry. And the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is an unending nightmare. Yet, among the most-senior leadership, there is also some perspective. The terrorism threat no longer feels existential, as a combination of effective security initiatives, internal cooptation and international cooperation have made their mark. On Iran, there is a sense […]