Lebanon’s prime minister-designate, Mustapha Adib, resigned in late September after nearly a month of fruitless talks to create a Cabinet of technocrats. With yet another failed attempt to form a government and no replacement in sight, Lebanon’s future is looking a lot like its bleak past.

The Middle East is “is both remarkably impervious to change…and at the same time always sort of on the verge of an explosion,” says Robert Malley, president and CEO of International Crisis Group. Malley spoke about the forces and factors driving change, and those opposing it, in his Trend Lines interview.