The Americas Archive

Conventional wisdom now claims that America is in decline. In its report, “A Transformed World,” the National Intelligence Council predicts that in the next 15 years, the United States will be a “less dominant power.” Fareed Zakaria calls it “the rise of the rest.” Parag Khanna argues that in many places, “America is no longer viewed as a provider of security but rather of insecurity,” which allows China and Europe to exert competing imperial influence. And Paul Kennedy, who wrote about the perils of imperial overstretch in The Rise and Fall of Great Powers more than 20 years ago, just […]

State sovereignty can be likened to a living organism. It casts off meanings, sometimes splits, and reunites as it evolves in response to changing global values. Over the years, those global values and the subsequent meanings of sovereignty have often reflected the interests and preferences of hegemonic states. While a superpower like the United States cannot change the meaning or interpretation of sovereignty on its own, its political, economic, and military muscle give it a greater chance of mobilizing resources and support to influence the direction of the new meaning than a smaller country. States, multilateral organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and […]

INTEL CHIEF SIGNALS CHANGE — Adm. Dennis Blair, President Obama’s new director of national intelligence, has lost no time living up to his reputation as a hard-driving boss. The intelligence community has been at work since last December compiling the 2009 Annual Threat Assessment, which the new director submitted to Congress Thursday. According to a well-informed source, when Blair arrived to take up his post some days ago, the finished draft was handed to him, but to almost everyone’s consternation he rejected it. Intel officers had to scramble to produce a new version shifting the emphasis from terrorism to the […]

This Economist article on how major league sports remains pretty much recession-proof sent me looking for Babe Ruth’s famous quote in response to a reporter informing him that the salary he was holding out for in 1930 — $80,000 — was $5,000 more than then-President Herbert Hoover made: What the hell has Hoover got to do with it? Besides, I had a better year than he did. What I didn’t realize was that Ruth, in addition to being an economist, was also a counterinsurgency theorist: It’s hard to beat a person who never gives up. Especially if they’ve got the […]

After Obama, Khatami? Not so fast, says Geoffrey Kemp writing at the National Interest: Khatami represents the smiling face of Iranian reformers. He is knownas a “moderate,” primarily because he has a more lax attitude towardssocial issues, such as women’s dress. But on the fundamentals of theIranian Revolution he is a hard-liner. . . . . . . There is no indication at this point that the nuclear program will slowdown under a Khatami presidency. Those who welcome the announcement ofhis candidacy are correct that it will lead to an exciting presidentialrace. But those who think it will change the […]

Just saw on the news that French President Nicolas Sarkozy made a surprise stop in Baghdad, accompanied by Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and Defense Minister Hervé Morin. (No shoes for Nicolas, apparently.) Obviously there are some contracts — especially defense contracts — to be gained, so the visit isn’t selfless. But I couldn’t help but think this is part of the French effort to get President Obama to walk back the tough love on NATO troop increases for Afghanistan. According to Le Figaro, Sarkozy is the first Western head of state not part of the invading coalition to visit Iraq. […]

According to a recent article in Global Security Newswire, President Barack Obama might seek an international agreement to limit weapons in space, reversing Bush administration policy. As noted on the White House Web site, the new administration is calling for “a worldwide ban on weapons that interfere with military and commercial satellites.” The president’s position on this issue is impractical and dangerous. Proponents of the ban argue that because the U.S. has the most space-based assets to lose in a future space war, it also has the greatest interest in restricting the use of space to peaceful purposes. An international […]

Matt Eckel cruelly sums up most of the arguments I make here on the blog in four words: Makes sense in theory. . . . More particularly, he was responding to this post on U.S.-Russia cooperation on European missile defense, and the idea of a three-pillar security architecture for Europe. Here’s Matt: All this to say that if there’s going to be a comprehensive collectivesecurity arrangement between the U.S., Europe and Russia, there has tobe a comprehensive convergence of security interests. That doesn’t seemto exist right now. A better idea, from my perspective, would be totrade European missile defense for […]

SKOPJE, Macedonia — As unpleasant as it may be for Europe to hear, the stabilization of the Balkans during its painful transition in the 1990s was made possible by the United States. Although America initially stayed out of the conflicts that followed the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the fighting ultimately stopped only after President Bill Clinton summoned the warring parties to Dayton in 1995. When Kosovo started looking like the next chapter in the region’s bloody history, it was again the U.S. that took decisive action, with Europe happy to support Washington’s lead. And finally, the U.S. made the final call […]

BOGOTÁ, Colombia — Colombia’s see-saw struggle over whether to allow a third, four-year term for President Álvaro Uribe shows little sign of being settled soon. Uribe was initially elected in 2002 and reelected in 2006 after a constitutional one-term limit was overturned. In 2008, four million Colombians signed a petition in favor of a second constitutional reform that would allow Uribe to stand once again in the 2010 polls. Now, despite a farcical error in the petition’s wording, it may well receive congressional support. The Colombian president has avoided stating his own position on the matter clearly. Yet he is […]

World Politics Review contributor Emil Sanamyan appeared yesterday on Russia Today to discuss the prospects for U.S.-Russian arms control talks, missile defense and Iran policy.

Since 1944, America’s position within the International Monetary Fund has given it tremendous influence over national and international financial markets. Increasingly, however, this influence has been met with resistance in some parts of the world, with America’s relative economic decline causing some to question its dominant role within the Fund. But the U.S. has been largely unwilling to relinquish its privileged position, or to dramatically change its stance on the benefits of unfettered markets. As a result, despite a recent resurgence in the face of the global financial crisis, the IMF is today facing a serious challenge to its status […]

For anyone who enters the site through the blog, I thought I’d call your attention to the latest WPR feature issue, The Changing Landscape of U.S. Intelligence. Its three articles examine the state of American intelligence after the Bush years, in terms of institutional reform (Richard Weitz here), collection techniques (Mark Lowenthal here), and the past and future of intelligence politicization (Jason Vest here). Definitely worth reading if you’d like to get a sense of the intelligence agenda for the Obama administration moving forward.

BOGOTÁ, Colombia — The release of four hostages held by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) over the weekend has raised much speculation about the motives behind the group’s move. The freeing of three low-ranking policemen and a soldier held captive since 2007 is the first unilateral handover in almost a year. For the government, the latest hostage release is a clear sign that the guerrillas are sinking under the pressure of daily military offensives carried out by its armed forces, which have prompted increasing numbers of fighters to desert FARC ranks. Growing public pressure and a string of […]

The changes to the U.S. intelligence community after the September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States were perhaps the most comprehensive in five decades. Intelligence reformers have sought to improve integration within the community as well as strengthen the intelligence tools at its disposal. Although the reforms achieved important progress in some areas, certain pre-9/11 difficulties have persisted while new ones have arisen. Restructuring The Executive Branch: The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act The greatest influence in shaping the contours of recent intelligence reform in the United States was the 9/11 Commission (officially the National Commission on Terrorist […]

Collection is one of the essential activities in intelligence. Not only does it involve some of the most daring and technically adept aspects of intelligence, it is also a major part of the United States intelligence budget. It even forms the basis for the security classification system, with classification of intelligence stemming from the harm that would be done to U.S. national security if the means by which intelligence is obtained were revealed. Much of the intelligence collection system that the United States developed over many decades was dictated by two factors: the nature of the Soviet state and the […]

“There is a thin line between the right and duty to formulate a policy based on subjective political values, and the conscious or unconscious temptation to abuse or ignore the intelligence process. It is one thing for a statesman to listen carefully to his intelligence advisers, then make a decision counter to their best judgment; and another for him to wield his political strength and authority in the interest of receiving only that information which conforms to his preconceived ideas and political biases. . . . It has been suggested that the unresolvable tension between policymaking and intelligence rests in […]