Whatever happens next in the ongoing drama between the U.S. and Syria over the use of chemical weapons, it would be difficult to conclude that President Barack Obama has performed impressively in his handling of the crisis in Syria. Obama’s response to the slow-motion disintegration of that key Arab state has been marked by a combination of neglect, ambivalence and improvisation. The latest chapter, played out over the past couple of weeks, showed the president at long last responding to what by all appearances was a massive use of chemical weapons by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. That […]

Since the Arab uprisings erupted two and a half years ago, the global jihadi movement has metastasized to a variety of new locales across the Arab world, most recently in Syria, Libya, Sinai and Tunisia. While these upheavals surprised many in the region, al-Qaida had predicted such events unfolding in a 20-year strategic plan (2000-2020) that came to light in 2005. That blueprint has gone according to plan so far, albeit more because of outside and structural forces than the efforts of jihadis themselves. As a result, the movement was well-positioned to take advantage of the new developments. In his […]

Until today, last week’s G-20 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, looked to be a bust. Although the group, whose members represent 90 percent of the world’s economy, is not supposed to have a traditional military security agenda, the impending U.S. military strike against Syria ensured that the Syrian issue would dominate deliberations. Despite efforts by U.S. President Barack Obama to convince the other leaders in attendance of the need to respond to the Syrian government’s Aug. 21 use of chemical weapons with military force, the group remained sharply divided on the issue. China and Russia but also Brazil, India and […]

The United Nations reported last week that the number of refugees from Syria has now surpassed 2 million, even while more than twice that many people are internally displaced. Combined, the numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) mean that the intensifying conflict has forced one-third of the Syrian population from their homes. Those who have managed to escape Syria altogether have largely fled to Lebanon and Jordan, and in such large numbers that they now amount to nearly 20 percent of the population in those countries, according to Bessma Momani, an associate professor at University of Waterloo and […]

Diplomatic Fallout: America’s Diplomatic Hocus-Pocus at the U.N.

Can Barack Obama ever trust the United Nations Security Council again? And will the Security Council, and the U.N. more broadly, trust the U.S. president? Last week, Obama vented his frustration with diplomacy over Syria at a press conference during the G-20 summit in Russia. Asked why he had called for military action in response to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s resort to the use of chemical weapons, Obama claimed the alternatives “would be some resolutions that were being proffered in the United Nations and the usual hocus-pocus.” This was a sour if pithy turn of phrase from a president who […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part investigative series on U.S. and French counterterrorism efforts in Niger. Part I examines Niger’s emergence as a target of terrorist groups active in the Sahel region. Part II will examine the growing U.S. security presence in Niger, and the nascent tensions with France over how best to counter terror and bolster Niger’s security. Until May 23, Niger, a desperately poor, landlocked country of 17 million that shares long borders with volatile states including Mali, Algeria, Libya and Nigeria, had been spared from the violence that has plagued its neighbors over the […]

Global Insider: Turkey’s Constitution Should Seek to Protect Rights First

Last month, a Turkish parliamentary committee charged with drafting a new Turkish constitution agreed to articles to expand opportunities for women and protect homosexuals from discrimination. In an email interview, Dr. Aslan Amani, a political scientist specializing in democratic theory, explained the recent trajectory of and future priorities for Turkey’s constitution writing process.* WPR: What is the current state of Turkey’s efforts to replace the constitution written under military rule in 1980? Aslan Amani: So far, the Constitution Consensus Committee has made the most progress on the sections dealing with fundamental rights and freedoms. However, the commission members remain polarized […]

President Barack Obama apparently failed to change any minds on Syria when the leaders attending the G-20 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, met for a working dinner Thursday night. Instead, according to Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, the divisions over Syria “were confirmed” at the dinner. One of the problems facing the Obama team is that there remains widespread skepticism about the veracity of U.S. intelligence claims. Even as lab results from Britain’s Porton Down laboratory seem to confirm that sarin gas was used in the attack on three Damascus suburbs on Aug. 21, Russia, along with some other countries, […]

Among the harshest critics of President Barack Obama’s push for military intervention in Syria are skeptics who question the very foundation of the claim that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons on Aug. 21, the day intelligence agencies in several countries say Syrian forces carried out a massive nerve gas attack. The critics declare themselves unpersuaded by the evidence made public so far and say it simply does not make sense from a tactical and strategic vantage point for Assad to have used the internationally proscribed weaponry. If chemical agents were used, they argue, it makes more sense for […]

Over the weekend, President Barack Obama called for a vote on a proposed United States military strike against Syria, with the administration releasing a draft authorization for the use of military force (AUMF) that served as a starting point for congressional discussion this week. Lawmakers are working to amend the broad language of that draft, with new draft language proposed by the Senate that uses narrower language than in the administration’s draft and places some limits on the authorization to use force. Speaking with Trend Lines on Tuesday, John Bellinger III, an expert in national security law, said the president […]

Strategic Horizons: Syria and the Road to American Retrenchment

The extent of history-altering decisions often isn’t evident until after the fact. Who could have guessed, for instance, that George H.W. Bush’s decision to oppose Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 would lead the United States into a global war with al-Qaida and a second, even costlier conflict in Iraq? On rare occasions, though, the importance of a decision is apparent even before it is made with finality—the big picture clearly lurking behind the closer, more immediate one. Deciding whether to attack Syria’s Assad regime for the large-scale use of chemical weapons against civilians is just such a choice, […]

The impending U.S. military strike against Syria due to the Syrian army’s massive use of chemical weapons against innocent civilians underscores the difficulties involved in using military force in such situations. It would be far better and less costly to strengthen the Chemical Weapons Convention and other nonproliferation tools than to apply military power to eliminate rogue states’ existing chemical weapons (CW) materials or try to limit their use. Obama administration officials have cited various reasons for launching a limited attack: to punish the Syrian government for its past CW use; to deter further use; and, in case deterrence fails, […]

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