The world is riveted by the ongoing turmoil in Egypt as that nation frantically searches for a political identity and a path to stable democracy. Because Egypt has long been one of America’s most important political and security partners, Washington is particularly worried about a collapse into violence or the seizure of power by extremists. Such concern is warranted, but more than just the future of Egypt is in play: The problems there are not unique or isolated, but emblematic of a crisis of governance engulfing the entire world. This will have a profound effect on U.S. security. In the […]

If a Western policymaker had sketched out a dream scenario for the Arab world in 2013, it would have looked something like this: In Egypt, President Mohammed Morsi would gradually mature into a semi-competent leader. In Syria, his counterpart Bashar al-Assad would fall quickly and the fragmented opposition would cobble together a half-decent government. Other countries in the region making the transition from dictatorship, such and Libya and Yemen, would make halting progress to lasting stability. Some Western officials had even greater ambitions. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has made restarting the Israeli-Palestinian peace process an early priority since […]

On Wednesday, Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, Egypt’s military chief of staff, announced that the country’s elected president, Mohammed Morsi, had been removed from office. Egypt’s constitution will be suspended; Adly Mansour, the chief judge of the Constitutional Court, will temporarily assume the presidency and oversee a transitional government until new elections can be held at a date yet to be determined. The events of the “second Egyptian revolution” have effectively terminated the experiment as to whether the Muslim Brotherhood, having won parliamentary and presidential elections last year, would be able to construct a democratic regime. They now present the Obama administration […]

Conflict in 2012 by the Numbers

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) has released its annual by-the-numbers update on the state of conflict worldwide, through the end of 2012, in the latest issue of the Journal of Peace Research. The combination of statistics and violence makes for unusually dismal reading, but nevertheless the authors have good news: “Overall, the 2000s has been the least conflict-ridden decade since the 1970s.” Last year in particular saw 32 armed conflicts around the world, five fewer than in 2011, where the authors define an “armed conflict” as one that “concerns government or territory or both where the use of armed […]

As the United States stumbles about in search of a coherent strategy in Syria, one idea that continues to resurface is the establishment of a no-fly zone. Its appeal is easy to understand. Facing a rebel advance in the summer of 2012, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s military increasingly relied on airpower. As a result, civilian casualties escalated. With no response to the threat from the air, the rebel offensive faltered, and the Assad regime, which seemed on the verge of collapse, turned the tide. For the United States, a no-fly zone seems to provide a way to do something about […]

Spanning only three countries, U.S. President Barack Obama’s recently concluded trip to Africa was revealing for the number of issues and countries it did not touch on. From growing subregional economic integration, to security and postconflict reconciliation, to deeply problematic governance challenges, this WPR special report reviews a broad range of Africa’s many policy challenges. U.S. and Africa For U.S. in Africa, Benign Neglect No Longer an OptionBy Richard DownieJanuary 8, 2013U.S. Shouldn’t Overcommit to African SecurityBy Steven MetzMay 1, 2013 U.S. Must Strike Difficult Balance on West Africa’s Terrorist ThreatBy Alex ThurstonJune 17, 2013 Walking the Line: U.S. Security […]

The recent announcement by the deputy commander of Russia’s Caspian fleet, Nikolai Yakubovsky, that Russia and Iran intend to hold a combined naval exercise in the Caspian Sea later this year should not have come as a surprise. Not only have the two sides engaged in such joint drills in previous years, but since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the new Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic have enjoyed a surprisingly harmonious relationship regarding regional security issues. The Iranian government has refused to intervene on behalf of the Muslim guerrillas fighting Moscow in Chechnya or in other parts of […]

On June 15, Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi announced he was cutting diplomatic ties with Syria and backed the creation of a no-fly zone over the country. In an email interview, Eric Trager, Next Generation fellow and an expert on Egyptian politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, explained how Syria’s war has affected Egypt and Morsi’s influence on the broader region. WPR: How are the effects of the Syrian war being felt in Egypt? Eric Trager: The effects of the Syrian war are being felt in three ways in Egypt. First, in the past few weeks, President Mohammed […]

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