Middle East & North Africa Archive

John Kerry undertook his maiden voyage to Moscow as U.S. secretary of state this week, and the initial impression is that his visit was a success. There was a perceptible thaw in what, over the past year, has been described as a much more contentious relationship. U.S. officials have focused on the prospect of a “more intensified dialogue with the Russians” that can now take place in the aftermath of the presidential elections in both Russia and the United States. Building upon the foundation laid last month by National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, Kerry continued the process of leaving behind […]

When Israeli missiles struck Syrian facilities on May 3—an operation that Israel has not officially confirmed but is widely believed to have carried out—they showed the results of a cost-benefit analysis whose arithmetic yields clear results. Since the explosions shook Damascus, Israel has gone to great lengths to assure the Syrian regime and others that it has no interest in becoming embroiled in the Syrian civil war. Israel’s concerns, and the military strikes, focus on another enemy, namely Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia that is a close ally of Iran, an avowed enemy of Israel and the source of thousands […]

Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid visited Tehran last weekend to attend the 17th meeting of the India-Iran Joint Commission. Though the most surprising outcome of the visit was the agreement on a common diplomatic initiative for resolving the Syrian crisis, a number of other agreements, including for the expansion of the strategically important Chabahar port on the Arabian Sea, signal a closer alignment on a more critical geopolitical interest that the two sides share: ensuring long-term stability in Afghanistan. Clearly the scheduled U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan is driving a new diplomatic engagement between India and Iran. Contrast this […]

A Russian warship docked at the port of Haifa on May 1, making it the first Russian warship ever to visit Israel. In an email interview, Mark N. Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University who focuses on Russian foreign policy, explained the recent evolution of the Russia-Israel relationship. WPR: What is the immediate context of Russia’s decision to send a warship to Israel for the first time? Mark Katz: The visit of the first Russian warship to Israel is one more sign of how Russian-Israeli relations have steadily improved ever since Vladimir Putin first came […]

As the immediate sense of crisis fades on the Korean Peninsula, the longer-term cycle of provocation and response remains in place. North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile capabilities continue to grow, and South Korea is feeling the pressure to respond by building its own capabilities. Meanwhile, there are signs that China’s resolve to back the North may be wavering. And while the U.S. response to North Korea seems to have worked in the short run, Washington needs to stay prepared for all contingencies. North Korea’s Threat North Korea Gambles on Strategic AssumptionsBy Nikolas GvosdevApril 5, 2013 Even If It Fails, […]

If you take any interest in the Syrian war and international diplomacy, you may well experience a disturbing sense of deja vu this week. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is heading to Moscow. His visit is part of a renewed American campaign to make Russia rethink its strategy of support for the regime in Damascus, which could culminate in talks between Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin at the June G-8 summit in Northern Ireland. Kerry is reportedly optimistic that he can make some progress. But this new push is reminiscent of earlier, unsuccessful efforts to win over the […]

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s upcoming visit to the Gaza Strip, tentatively set for later this month, is proving to be yet another test for Ankara’s Middle East policy, which has been battered by the regional upheaval of the past two years. While Erdogan has long wanted to make an official trip to Hamas-ruled Gaza, he has also been receiving strong messages from the United States, as well as the Palestinians’ Fatah faction, to put the visit off. With Erdogan insisting that the trip will take place as planned, the Gaza visit is becoming an increasingly high-stakes venture for […]

There has been a great deal of talk in U.S. foreign policy circles about “red lines” and the strength of American resolve in recent days. Much of it has revolved around the emerging evidence that chemical weapons, namely sarin gas, may have been used in the Syrian civil war, which drew attention back to the Obama administration’s declarations in 2012 that the use of unconventional weapons could be a trigger for American intervention in that conflict. The sarin discussion came on the heels of a brief controversy surrounding allegations made by Chinese dissident Chen Guangchen that the Chinese government was […]

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged earlier this week in the clearest terms to date that members of his Shiite organization, the most powerful military and political force in Lebanon, are helping President Bashar al-Assad fight the opposition in neighboring Syria. On Tuesday, in a televised speech, Nasrallah said Hezbollah would stand by the Syrian president and would not allow the country to “fall into the hands” of the United States, Israel or jihadi extremists. Two experts who spoke with Trend Lines agreed that while the speech broadly reflected the dynamics on the ground, Nasrallah’s characterization of Hezbollah’s role in Syria […]

In late-April, the Obama administration blacklisted two Lebanese money exchanges for allegedly facilitating Hezbollah’s use of narcotics trafficking profits to fund terrorist activities. In an email interview, Matthew Levitt, director of the Stein program on counterterrorism and intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of the forthcoming “Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon’s Party of God,” explained the broad range of Hezbollah’s illicit activities and the growing savvy of its criminal network. WPR: What are Hezbollah’s main illicit business activities, and where is it most active? Matthew Levitt: Hezbollah is engaged in an amazingly broad array […]