Middle East & North Africa Archive

One simple rule of revolution is that regimes fall when their security services refuse to fire on protesters, while uprisings often falter when security forces do go ahead and shoot. The situation in Egypt remains fluid, but thus far the Egyptian army has not violently put down the protest movement. Why? The answer is complicated. Mark Thompson argued at Time’s Swampland blog that the exposure of Egyptian military officers to norms of professionalism and civilian control in the United States may have been determinative in the Egyptian army’s decision not to crush the anti-Mubarak protests. Thompson’s argument draws on several […]

I never really understood at the time why so many observers ridiculed French President Nicolas Sarkozy for his efforts to launch the Union for the Mediterranean. Clearly, it was an ambitious project. If the global economic crisis hadn’t finished it off, the complicated politics of the region probably would have. But in light of the recent events in Tunisia and Egypt, where the uprisings have been driven as much by frustrated economic aspirations as by repressed political aspirations, it’s hard not to see Sarkozy’s emphasis on economic development of the southern Mediterranean — as a pre-emptive effort to prevent inflows […]

A thought has been burning a hole in my head over the past few days — namely, that any meaningful Egyptian transition to democracy will almost certainly involve some form of a truth and reconciliation process. This issue has already arisen in Tunisia, where Le Figaro reports that the country’s national archivists spontaneously undertook to safeguard the regime’s files once it became clear former President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali would be ousted from power. Despite their efforts, however, the most compromising documents had already disappeared. The thing is, Egypt has been a central player in just about every major American […]

The Obama administration’s reaction to the dramatic events in Egypt has inspired many analogies in recent days. Its initial caution and clumsiness, followed by its conviction to “be on the right side of history,” reminded optimists of the Bush administration’s reaction in 1989 to the uprisings in Eastern Europe, for example, and pessimists of the Carter administration’s reaction a decade earlier to Iran’s revolution. The Obama administration’s air of ambivalence, however, evokes a perennial condition of international relations. Accustomed as most of us are to power hierarchies, we often overlook how difficult and complex actual relations can be between big […]

Although even the immediate outcome of the unrest in Egypt remains uncertain, its potential ramifications beyond the country’s borders are worth assessing, considering Egypt’s importance to regional and world politics. Considered an international center of Islamic culture and teaching, Egypt is perhaps the most influential Arab country, with the largest Muslim population in the Middle East and one of the strongest militaries in the Arab world. It has contributed to foreign stability operations, most notably in the First Gulf War, and has important intelligence assets in the world’s various Islamist movements, including reported informants within al-Qaida. Egypt also enjoys considerable […]

While there remains a ton of things that can go wrong with the unfolding revolution in Egypt, there’s a strong case to be made that America, despite its low popular standing there, has been handed a gift horse whose mouth, as the axiom puts it, is best left unexamined. Because most of America’s concerns center on security issues, I’ll frame the argument for why this is the case in tactical, operational and strategic terms, and then finish on the most relevant grand strategic note — namely, the new Axis of Good that may result. Concerning President Hosni Mubarak’s conditional offer […]

Over the course of the two-week-old protests in Egypt, the American media has been consumed with debate over how the U.S. government should react. An emerging consensus across the political spectrum argues that President Barack Obama should support the protesters’ demand that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resign immediately. This view was prominently expressed in an open letter to Obama by dozens of well-known scholars of Middle East politics, who advised him to essentially abandon 30 years of strong support for the Mubarak regime by throwing in America’s lot with the protest movement. Such a step would not clearly serve American […]

I don’t want to belabor the point I made in a recent post about a global crisis of legitimacy, and I should clarify that I don’t think the West and the world in general is dozing indolently on a bed of potential revolution. But a couple of seemingly unrelated news items here in France draw out the inchoate dynamic I was trying to put my finger on. France’s Foreign Minister Michèle Alliot-Marie already got into hot water during the initial round of protests in Tunisia when she suggested in testimony to a parliamentary committee that French gendarmes could help train […]

According to official media, Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has said his government will lift the national state of emergency imposed for the past 19 years in the very near future.

There’s no way to predict what will unfold in Egypt in the days and weeks ahead. Will protests continue until President Hosni Mubarak is overthrown? Will the military and security services initiate a full-scale crackdown in the name of restoring law and order? What will instability in the largest country in the Arab world portend for the Middle East as a whole? The U.S. national security establishment, of necessity, is in reactive mode right now as it assesses these questions. However, to the extent that Washington can shape the situation, what are some of the lessons from other “regime changes” […]

Not since the 1960s has the idea of a common Arab identity seemed more real. The Tunisian and Egyptian revolts were quickly defined as Arab uprisings; sure enough, these historic events have already reverberated in Yemen, Jordan, Syria, and even Saudi Arabia. But Tunisia and Egypt can also be described as African countries, and not just because of their geographic location. The nations of North Africa have been imagined as African by some of the region’s political and intellectual luminaries. Even Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt’s leader from 1956 to 1970 and an eloquent paladin of pan-Arabism, invoked the African element […]

The Egyptian army has started arresting anti-government protesters in the center of Cairo. It marks a change of approach by the military, which previously wasn’t intervening in clashes between supporters of President Mubarak and anti-government demonstrators. Five people are reported to have been killed in a morning gunfight in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. That follows a day of heavy violence in which hundreds were injured. The country’s braced for more trouble as it enters its tenth day of unrest.

The uprising in Egypt has framed a dilemma in the starkest of terms: Does the West want true democracy in the Middle East, even if it brings the possibility of some rather frightening scenarios? A democratic Egypt could blossom into an open, pluralistic society, with equality for all religions and between men and women, continuing good relations with the West and enduring peace with Israel. But it could also follow a path similar to Iran’s after the overthrow of the shah, with the popular movement hijacked by a well-organized militant religious movement, leading to decades of oppression and strife — […]

James F. Jeffrey, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, testified before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Feb. 1, about the challenges ahead as the United States withdraws its military and pursues the transition to a civilian-led presence in Iraq.

The political situation in Egypt remains uncertain, with the still-in-question loyalty of the Egyptian army all that will determine whether or not President Hosni Mubarak survives as the country’s leader. However, even if Mubarak manages to hold onto power, change is increasingly likely, and Egypt’s potential political transformation over the upcoming months could have a large impact not only on the Egyptian military itself, but also on the military balance in the region. For the first time since the 1970s, Israeli military planners may have to take Egyptian military potential seriously, while other states in the region will also take […]

I’ve been having trouble wrapping my head around the implications of what’s already taken place in Egypt, and clearly there’s still a lot more on tap. The U.S. and Europe are now calling for an orderly transition to begin immediately, and while that makes for sound policy, the sheer impossibility of that demand underscores what I think is the most alarming dynamic here: a crisis of legitimacy, on three levels. The first level is clearly within Egypt itself, because while it’s easy to say that President Hosni Mubarak must go, there’s no objective standard for determining the legitimacy of what […]

It’s time to think the unthinkable: Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich Persian Gulf states may be next in line to confront widespread popular discontent. As a wave of mass protests sweeps the Arab world, shaking the regime of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to the core, rumblings of popular restlessness are bubbling to the surface in the Gulf. Shiite opposition groups in Bahrain, a strategic island kingdom that hosts the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, have called for protests on Feb. 14 to demand greater political freedom, an end to human rights abuses, improved economic opportunities. To quell rising anger, Arab leaders […]