Middle East & North Africa Archive

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Following a landmark election on Sunday, the U.S.-backed “March 14” coalition held on to its slim majority in the Lebanese parliament, defeating the opposition alliance of Hezbollah, Amal, and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), an officially secular but mostly Christian party headed by General Michel Aoun. Analysts are scrutinizing the returns in an effort to explain how March 14 managed to pull off a decisive win, given that extensive polling over a period of months had suggested a much closer race with a greater likelihood of an opposition victory. Coming as it did on the heels of […]

On June 3, 2009, leaders of Cyprus’ two communities, the Greek Cypriot south and the Turkish Cypriot north, met for the 31st time in less than nine months in the latest attempt to unlock one of the most intractable of the world’s “frozen conflicts.” Days before, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) President Mehmet Ali Talat had boldly predicted that the latest round of U.N.-sponsored negotiations could result in a reunification agreement by the end of 2009. But history has taught veteran Cyprus-watchers to regard any expressions of optimism with at least a degree of skepticism. Indeed, so many false […]

A huge natural gas discovery 50 miles off the Israeli coast at Haifa could potentially meet Israel’s energy needs for 20 years once it eventually comes online. In January 2009, a consortium led by U.S. energy exploration company Noble Energy announced the discovery of three massive gas fields, with one of the group’s partners calling the find “one of the biggest in the world” that represented a “historic landmark in the economic dependence of Israel.” By February, the group announced that further flow testing analysis at the Tamar 1 field had increased the initial huge projection of 3.1 trillion cubic […]

World Politics Review managing editor Judah Grunstein appeared on France 24’s panel discussion program, The Debate, last Thursday to discuss President Barack Obama’s speech in Cairo. Guests included the NY Times’ Paris bureau chief Steven Erlanger, and author Irshad Manji. Part one can be seen here. Part two can be seen here.

In his comprehensively titled tome, “Diplomacy,” legendary U.S. statesman Henry Kissinger laid out the two competing schools of thought that have guided American foreign policy in its rise to power. The first was realist, embodied by Theodore Roosevelt, based on power and obsessed with the zero-sum game that guides the core of international relations. The second, touted by Woodrow Wilson, was idealist, based on cooperation and unflinching in its belief in the power of ideas. To Kissinger’s consternation, though he believed that realism was the right way through which to view the world, he says that it was actually Wilson’s […]

Yesterday afternoon, the stage was set: President Barack Hussein Obama, the son of a Muslim, had traveled to Cairo to give his long-awaited speech to the Islamic world, in an effort to repair the damage done to America’s image in the region by recent U.S. foreign policy. Judging by U.S. reactions, the speech was a huge success. But will the other half of the equation, the president’s Arab and Muslim target audience, follow the White House’s carefully crafted script? Though it is still too early to say with certainty, the U.S. could be in for a disappointment. To understand more […]

This James Joyner post has a couple links that offer some good context for Turkey’s shift in recent years from sometimes problematic Western ally to more assertive regional player: his own interview with Swedish diplomat Henrik Liljegren (scroll down to question 5) and this Der Spiegel article. Both highlight the ways in which Turkey has essentially concluded that it has more to offer the West in general and the EU in particular than the reverse. This tracks with what Gareth Jenkins wrote in his Strategic Posture Review for the March/April issue (sub. req.) of WPR’s digital journal. (The SPRs are […]

Watching President Obama’s speech yesterday was both a moving but also a frankly discomforting experience. The fact that he was speaking in Egypt and said absolutely nothing supportive or reassuring to the Egyptian people who have been suffering for decades under Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s dictatorial whims and repression suggests Obama may have good manners but is still not willing to say “in public” what he undoubtedly knows in private. If anything Obama’s presence and demeanor in Cairo will likely reinforce Mubarak’s legitimacy and undermine Obama’s message that America now stands for change. What’s new about America’s self-serving support for […]

When Air Force One landed in the sands of the Arabian Peninsula yesterday with President Barack Obama aboard, my mind traveled back to Nov. 4, last year. On the day Obama was elected president of the United States, I was in Amman, Jordan, listening to jaded Arab men declare that nothing would change in the Middle East, no matter who lived in the White House. Fast forward exactly seven months later, and the Arab world is abuzz with excitement. President Obama has traveled to the Middle East to prove my Jordanian interlocutors wrong, and to demonstrate that the relationship between […]

BEIRUT, Lebanon — A polarized Lebanese electorate goes to the polls this Sunday in a hotly contested general election that will determine Lebanon’s cabinet and government for the next four years. It is a high-stakes race, with more than 15 political parties and over 700 candidates jockeying for power. As always in this country of roughly four million citizens, the internal faultlines have become a proxy to geopolitical interests and regional turf battles. The multitude of parties could easily be misconstrued as the genuine sign of democracy and freedom of speech, often lacking in the Middle East. But to a […]

BEIRUT, Lebanon — The outcome of this Sunday’s legislative elections in Lebanon is both a certainty and a mystery. On the one hand, the main Sunni, Shiite and Druze parties are sure to win big in their regional strongholds. But the Christian vote is very much in play. With the Sunnis and Druze firmly in the pro-Western “March 14” camp led by Sunni leader Saad Hariri, and the Shiites solidly behind the Syrian-backed “March 8” opposition bloc, the balance between them will be tilted by Maronite voters in their strongholds around Beirut and Mount Lebanon. These will be split between […]

This is a bit counterintuitive. But despite this being a speech and not policy, which is to say words and not deeds, I was left with the thought that the new beginning of President Barack Obama’s address in Cairo essentially closes the era of faith and opens the era of works. I mean that with regard to his own personal trajectory, in the sense that the listening and talking phase is over. Now it’s time to deliver. But I also mean it with regard to our broader national trajectory. By basing his appeal — on America’s behalf — on an […]

When U.S. President Barack Obama meets with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo tomorrow, they may want to focus some attention on the most enduring but unexamined component of the U.S.-Egypt relationship: military cooperation. Over the past 30 years, military cooperation has yielded great benefits for both countries. But that cooperation now shows signs of strain, and a course correction is in order. Operationally, the U.S. enjoys privileged access to Egypt’s air space and waterways. That meant expedited permission for more than 35,000 over-flights and 850 naval transits from 2001 to 2005. Strategically, Egypt has largely supported — or else […]

U.S. coverage of Pakistan’s spotty effort to battle extremists is understandably U.S.-centric. So we hear a lot about what Islamabad should do to contain the FATA-based Taliban who are also feeding the Afghan insurgency. Since last November’s Mumbai attacks and the subsequent unveiling of the Obama administration’s regional strategy, there’s been a bit more attention paid to India’s concerns. But what doesn’t get as much attention as it deserves is China’s concerns about Uighur separatist terrorist groups, and Iran’s concerns about Baloch separatist terrorist groups, both also using Pakistani territory as a safe haven (both via John McCreary). In other […]

Laura Rozen spun her rolodex and got some more on today’s meeting between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. Apparently the meeting had been scheduled for a few week’s back and then postponed, so it’s the substance — getting Iran back to the P5+1 negotiating table — more than the timing — U.S. President Barack Obama’s imminent visit — at play here. And according to Rozen’s sources, the Iranian consensus on how to respond has yet to emerge. I’d be surprised if one does before the upcoming Iranian presidential election. It’s hard to tell with such […]

President Barack Obama’s historic address to the Muslim world in Cairo tomorrow offers a prime opportunity to outline a new U.S. vision for democracy and human rights in the region. To accomplish this goal, Obama must firmly reject the notion that safeguarding America’s strategic interests in the Middle East somehow runs counter to the goal of advancing political reform. Instead he must craft a balanced message that recognizes that reform is synonymous with U.S. interests in the region. Unfortunately, if early signs are any indication, the president seems to be striking the wrong balance. The delayed appointments of key democracy […]

Most of the commentary I’ve seen about the Russian role in the stand-off over Iran’s nuclear program has to do with Russia’s refusal to support strengthened UNSC sanctions to punish Tehran for not being more transparent with the IAEA. But an alternative formulation of that reflection would be Russia’s refusal to pressure Tehran to be more transparent with the IAEA to begin with, thereby avoiding the need for sanctions altogether. So when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says, after meeting with Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, “We have confirmed the need to assure theinternational community of the exclusively peaceful nature […]