Middle East & North Africa Archive

Nouri al-Maliki, now that you’ve returned the Green Zone to Iraqi sovereignty and placed American troops under Iraqi jurisdiction, what are you going to do next?

It’s hard not to read this Army War College monograph by Sherifa Zuhur on the broader Osrael-Hamas conflict (i.e., written in December before the recent round of escalation) without feeling a tragic sense of missed opportunity about the past two years. For me that begins with the American and Israeli decision to exacerbate the Fatah-Hamas split following the latter’s 2006 electoral victory, and to move ahead with a separate Israel-PA peace track. I also think that Israel could have taken a more courageous position with regard to building on the truce that just expired. I recognize that I write that […]

Without harboring any naivete regarding Russia/Gazprom’s use of energy supplies as a geopolitical weapon, it seems odd that a pricing dispute suddenly becomes a “gas war” (Danger Room) when Russia shuts off the gas, but not when Ukraine stops paying for it. Whether or not Ukraine owed $1.5 billion or $2.1 billion for November and December deliveries, they hadn’t made the payment (NY Times). And that’s independent of the price for 2009 deliveries. Michael Hancock, writing at Registan.net, says: This comes as just another step towards normal usage of gas and oil aspolitical tools. The idea that some resources or […]

Much of the commentary surrounding the current Israel-Hamas war has been addressed to the question of whether Israel has any hope of achieving its goals militarily, given that Hamas, like Hezbollah in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, is a non-state actor that does not fight conventionally and is therefore difficult to defeat with conventional military means. Israel’s Goals: Short-Term vs. Long-Term When addressing this question, it’s important to be clear about what Israel’s goals are in this current operation. Israel’s short-term military objectives need to be distinguished from the long-term objective of security for the state of Israel, which ultimately means […]

In the coming days or perhaps weeks, the current war between Israel and Hamas will come to an end. More precisely, this new chapter in the conflict will reach its conclusion. When that happens, a third party will have played a key mediating role and, in the process, will have raised its diplomatic profile. While the United States is the most likely candidate to broker the final ceasefire, should another country or organization become the pivotal mediator, it could walk away with a big diplomatic prize, emerging from the process with renewed prestige and international influence. But if glory awaits […]