Could the horrors of the earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria on Monday be accompanied by a slim silver lining? Could the international humanitarian efforts in response translate into lasting repairs of destabilizing diplomatic rifts? The evidence from history suggests that it’s complicated. But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
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Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has made alliance-management its top priority in Europe, and the extent of Western cohesion over the past year has underscored the degree to which those efforts have paid off. Yet after one year of war, U.S. leadership has encountered a paradox: It is too successful for its own good.
Over the past year, numerous countries, led by the U.S. and EU, have leveled an unprecedented package of economic sanctions on Russia. These sanctions are both comprehensive, targeting the Russian economy in general, and specific, aimed at key Russian oligarchs who support Putin. Now, a natural question arises: Are they working?
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has been increasingly emboldened in managing ties with Moscow. But while Kazakhstan has never shown more resolve in seeking to reset its relationship with Russia, the government’s relations with the country’s population have never seemed more tenuous.
Many in Ukraine watched the Czech presidential election closely as a bellwether for whether European public opinion would continue to support the delivery of military aid to Kyiv. The success of Petr Pavel over far-right populist Andrej Babis signaled the country’s desire to stick by its NATO allies.
It’s hard to say what impact Cyprus’ upcoming presidential election will have on reunification, as the issue has received little attention throughout the campaign. There was a time when the “Cyprus Problem” dominated Greek Cypriot politics. But today, the political debate tends to be more focused on domestic issues.
The Labour Party is likely to win the U.K.’s next election, which must be held no later than December 2024. It might take years before efforts to tackle the party’s policy priorities yield visible outcomes. But Brexit is a major area where swift action might be matched by results in Starmer’s first 100 days in power.