Gas Dispute: Russia Taking Full Advantage

Last week, Judah wondered why a dispute over gas payments between Russia and Ukraine only begins to be called a “gas war” when Gazprom cuts off the gas, but not when Ukraine refuses to pay for it. If there is indeed a tendency among the Western press (and blogs) to paint these sorts of conflicts as exclusively precipitated by Russia, then that might owe as much to an unwillingness to delve into the underlying economic issues as it does an inherent anti-Russian bias. So I’ve been turning to the financial press lately to get some alternative views. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, […]

For most observers, the brief war between Russia and Georgia last August only underscored the instability of the Caucasus region and the dangerous potential energy stored in its so-called frozen conflicts. Remarkably, though, the war’s immediate impact has actually led to a relatively more stable regional status quo. Dangerous Build-up The wars of the early 1990s, in which newly independent Georgia and Azerbaijan lost control of their Soviet-era ethnic minority regions, became formative experiences for the two young nation-states. In both countries, the popular nationalist narrative continues to promote the “return” of the breakaway territories as a sine qua non […]

In her WPR column analyzing potential brokers of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, Frida Ghitis did not consider a possible role for Russia — and with good reason. While Moscow has sought to position itself as a Middle East kingmaker for decades, its diplomatic initiatives have been noteworthy as much for their minimal results as for their persistence. At present, there is no reason to believe that Russia will have anything more than a negligible influence on the current Gaza crisis. In some respects, this is unfortunate, since it would be extremely helpful if Moscow were able to compel […]

Slovenia’s decision to effectively block Croatia’s entry to the E.U. on the basis of an unresolved border dispute represents a dangerous precedent that, if copied, could damage or destroy the chances of other accession hopefuls in southeast Europe. Because of the Slovenian veto in late December, Croatia was able to open only one new “chapter” — representing a policy area in which it must prove that it meets EU norms — out of an expected 10, and close three, instead of the five foreseen, in the latest round of its ongoing accession negotiations. It is not the first time an […]

The East-West Corridor to Afghanistan

Ten days ago, I referred to this M.K. Bhadrakumar piece in Asia Times Online as “speculation.” In the meantime, things have moved pretty quickly, and the direction they’re headed in lends increasing weight to the scenario Bhadrakumar sketched out. In a nutshell, the Afghanistan Surge is essentially a done deal, with logistical preparations for an additional 30K troops already underway. That, in turn, creates a need for more secure supply lines than is presently the case via land routes through Pakistan. There are essentially three alternatives: the East-West Corridor by boat, rail and road via Georgia-Azerbaijan-Turkemenistan; airlift via Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan […]

Gas as Political Tool

Without harboring any naivete regarding Russia/Gazprom’s use of energy supplies as a geopolitical weapon, it seems odd that a pricing dispute suddenly becomes a “gas war” (Danger Room) when Russia shuts off the gas, but not when Ukraine stops paying for it. Whether or not Ukraine owed $1.5 billion or $2.1 billion for November and December deliveries, they hadn’t made the payment (NY Times). And that’s independent of the price for 2009 deliveries. Michael Hancock, writing at Registan.net, says: This comes as just another step towards normal usage of gas and oil aspolitical tools. The idea that some resources or […]

LONDON — There wasn’t much good cheer for Prime Minister Gordon Brown coming from Britain’s Anglican bishops this Christmas. One prelate after another used his seasonal message to denounce what the Bishop of Manchester, Nigel McCulloch, called the Labour government’s “morally corrupt” strategy for economic recovery. Before the holidays, Brown encouraged consumers to take advantage of slashed prices in the stores to keep the economy going. For the bishops, encouraging a spending spree was the wrong approach. Bishop Stephen Lowe of Hulme lamented that “the government isn’t telling people who are already deep in debt to stop overextending themselves, but […]

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