Europe Archive

Not long ago, in a WPR Briefing, Phil Cain discussed the dangerous precedent set by Slovenia’s veto of Croatia’s EU accession negotiations over an unresolved border dispute between the two nations. The MEP responsible for Croatia’s accession dossier, Austrian Socialist MEP Hannes Swoboda, has just announced that if the dispute isn’t settled within the next few weeks, it won’t be possible to open the remaining accession chapters needed to conclude negotiations in 2009, as planned. Possibility of breaking the deadline in that timespan, according to Swoboda? “Seventy to 80 percent not possible.” That’s Eurospeak for “a longshot.”

I’m on record as being a big fan of Turkey’s diplomacy of late, which makes the posture of Turkish PM Tayyip Erdogan during the Gaza War a bit of a puzzle. Turkey is a democracy, so the fact that Turkish public opinion was overwhelmingly outraged by the Israeli attacks probably played a part. Erdogan might also just have been unable to separate his personal reactions to the violence from his governmental function. And there’s always the possibility that there was a double communication going on, with his public declarations mitigated by direct exchanges with Israeli leaders. But I can’t help […]

When Barack Obama takes the oath of office today, he will become the person most empowered to protect Americans, and the world, from attacks of mass destruction. Although he assumes the presidency at a time of grave danger, real progress in curtailing the threat from weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is possible under his leadership. The threats, both real and potential, are significant. This past weekend, for instance, North Korean leaders claimed to have used the plutonium generated by the country’s nuclear energy program to make several atomic bombs. They insist that they will not relinquish these nuclear weapons even […]

MADRID, Spain — Barack Obama begins his presidency with an unprecedented level of goodwill among Europeans, who are hoping he will reverse many of the unpopular policies that embittered transatlantic relations under his predecessor. As the contours of Obama’s foreign policy come into focus, however, much of the onus for smoothing the frayed relationship will lie with Europe, not the United States. Obama faces a daunting list of domestic and foreign policy challenges, at a time when the United States’ historic levels of debt — combined with the faltering American economy — will force him to call on Europeans to […]

I’m still puzzling through this one, which I hadn’t seen yet. But apparently a Russian-Turkish consortium was the only bidder back in September in a tender for Turkey’s first civilian nuclear power plants. (They are now revising that bid.) According to this FT piece from September, the other usual suspects (Westinghouse and Areva) backed out of the tender due to Turkey’s insistence that the first plant come online by 2015: “In nuclear terms, 2015 is tomorrow,” one expert on the sector said. “When suppliers ask you for more time, you listen.” The Turkish cabinet will make the final decision on […]

The European Parliament just ratified an agreement reached in one of the last ministerial meetings of the French EU presidency that essentially reduced a number of barriers to the emergence of a true European defense market. And depending on what the details of the Gaza ceasefire look like, French President Nicolas Sarkozy just might have succeeded in including an EU defense component in the implementation phase. Both would be major successes on one of Sarkozy’s priority dossiers. On the down side, as Jean-Dominique Merchet reports over at Secret Défense, delivery of the EADS-built A400M has been delayed yet again. The […]

Daniel Levy has a pre-after action report on the political calculus behind what seems like an imminent ceasefire agreement in Gaza, and the political fallout that the Obama administration will be left to navigate. Assuming the ceasefire goes through, his analysis seems to track pretty closely with my own rambling reflections on the conflict over the past few weeks, which is reassuring considering how plugged in Levy is. He, too, argues that a significant push towards a real final status agreement is needed to mitigate the blowback from the war. In essence, the illogic of Israel’s operation is that from […]

ISRAEL MIGHT FIGHT FIRST, VOTE LATER — Even with the faint prospect of a ceasefire in the offing, there is talk of postponing Israel’s Feb. 10 national elections. For one thing, none of the parties has been campaigning; the public has been distracted (though not unduly dismayed: a recent poll showed only 10 percent of Israelis are against the Gaza incursion, and 82 percent believe Israel has not “gone too far”); and then there is the rather pious argument that a postponement would prevent resolution of the conflict from becoming a political issue. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is flying […]

World Politics Review’s managing editor, Judah Grunstein, appeared on France 24’s panel discussion, Politics, yesterday evening, alongside French Parliament Deputy Jacques Myard, European Parliament Deputy Alain Lipietz, and Middle East specialist Barah Mikaïl. Topics of discussion were the impact of the Israel-Hamas War on France, as well as French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s mediation efforts in the conflict. Part one of the program can be found here. Part two can be found here.

The story begins with a sculpture commissioned by the Czech Republic for the start of its EU presidency. Set in the atrium of the European Council in Brussels, the sprawling piece is a collection of maps of the EU member states, each sculpted by a native artist to represent not just the geography, but the essence of his or her country. What follows is pure genius: the sculpted map of France is covered by a giant “On Strike!” banner. The Netherlands is entirely under water, with five minarets poking above the surface. Luxembourg is a gold nugget, covered by a […]

Usually the way it works is that Art Goldhammer criticizes NicolasSarkozy’s foreign policy for being all hat and no cattle, and then I,for some reason, feel the need to point out that there is some cattleif you can ever get past the hat. But today Art decided to flip thescript, and nails a bunch of things about Sarkozy which I wish I’d formulated myself: . . . Sarkozy’s very flaws can sometimes play a usefulrole: his egotism encourages him to run risks that others might avoid,and he seems to be undeterred by the prospect of losing face. This canbe helpful […]

Interesting item in the Gulf Newsthat illustrates the extent to which not all is as it seems in theRussia-Ukraine gas dispute. Specifically, the ways in which the pricedispute masks the impending collapse of natural gas prices, at a timewhen Gazprom desperately needs cash to invest in infrastructureupgrades. Also this (which ought to, but probably won’t, takea couple point-sizes off the screaming headlines about Gazprom’sinhuman decision to shut the tap on downstream customers last week): Warmer-than-normalweather in October and November allowed Italy, Germany and neighboringcountries to pump record amounts of gas into underground storage. Halfwaythrough the heating season, Europe’s natural-gas stockpiles […]

Bad policies — and a bad attitude — need improvement to avoid endangering America’s nuclear arsenal, a senior-level U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) task force has concluded. The report (.pdf) warned that any further slippage could compromise the ability of the United States to deter potential threats as well as assure the security of friends and allies. It also offered many recommendations on how to improve DOD nuclear management. The incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama should consider how to address these proposals in the context of its broader nuclear weapons policies. The report was the second issued by the […]

This post by James Lamond at Democracy Arsenal breaks the mold of EU criticism by foregoing the derision and simply . . . presenting a useful analysis of some of the obstacles the EU faces with regards to formulating a coherent and effective foreign policy. That said, I think Lamond — and EU critics in general — places a bit too much emphasis on the “speaking with two voices” and “divergent interests” problems, and fails to give the “ability to deliver” problem its due. The fifty states, after all, have divergent interests, which explains the wide range of American opinion […]

Once you get past the obligatory extra heapings of ridicule, criticism of the EU usually falls into one of two categories. The first is hostile to idea of an institutionally strong, global actor; the second is skeptical that one can emerge. Judy Dempsey’s IHT column on the efforts to broker a Gaza ceasefire doesn’t disappoint, beginning with a caricatural description of the “competing” European diplomatic missions to the Middle East, before breaking towards the latter category. Dempsey presents some compelling shortcomings of the EU’s Middle East policy, as well as some convincing internal obstacles to resolving them. But what’s interesting […]

The current dispute between Russia and Ukraine over 2009 gas prices marks the fourth time since the Orange Revolution that Moscow and Kiev have tried to sign a contract. Each time, the process has been trumped by a hydra of hidden agendas and political intrigues, with far-reaching implications for consumers. Gazprom prices, scaled to its customers, are pegged to a basket of oil prices with a six-month lag. Embedded in the price for Ukraine, however, are transit fees for downstream exports to Europe. When concessions are made for the transit rate, calculated per 100 km of 1,000 cubic meters of […]

I’m not really sure what motivates the derision in David Kenner’s FP Passport write-up of French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s diplomatic activism, currently on display in the Israel-Hamas conflict: The French president has tasked himself with the modest goal ofnegotiating an immediate ceasefire to the carnage in Gaza. Even if hefails to score a diplomatic victory, his whirlwind tour will no doubtrepresent a triumph of travel booking. . . . The French taxpayers are getting precious few diplomatic victories fortheir money, but many headlines. And that seems to suit them just fine.Sarkozy’s trips have raised France’s international profile, much to thepleasure […]