After three days of voting that began over the weekend, participants in a one-sided referendum held in the disputed Abyei region on the border between Sudan and South Sudan voted overwhelmingly to join the South. The vote is not binding, but depending on the reaction, the outcome could have the potential to pull these countries even further apart. With only one of two ethnic groups in the region participating, the lopsided outcome was widely expected. What remains to be seen is how people will react to the vote both in the region and in the two national capitals. “There could […]

Two men died in an explosion in Addis Ababa yesterday in what the Ethiopian government described as a failed attempt to build a suicide bomb. The government’s claim that the two men were Somali nationals raises the specter of attacks by the militant group al-Shabab within Ethiopia. According to Catherine Cheney’s report for Trend Lines in the wake of last month’s al-Shabab attack on a Kenyan mall, Ethiopia’s military intervention into Somalia has made it a potential target for terrorism. Ethiopia . . . has kept troops in Somalia near the Ethiopian border since 2006. “It’s not clear how many […]

On Sept. 16, 2013, European and African nations reached an agreement called the New Deal Compact, pledging $2.7 billion to help Somalia build peace and consolidate its government. In an email interview, Aisha Ahmad, an assistant professor of international relations and comparative politics at the University of Toronto who also serves as chief operating officer of the Hawa Abdi Foundation, a nongovernmental relief organization in Somalia, explained the New Deal and the requirements for its success. WPR: What is new in the New Deal for Somalia? Aisha Ahmad: Representatives from across the European Union and Africa signed the New Deal […]

Over the weekend, members of special mission units under the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command carried out raids in Somalia and Libya, capturing a senior al-Qaida operative in the latter country. While these attacks often come across as lightning strikes in the media, no detail is spared in terms of coordination and preparation. Trend Lines spoke with three experts about the disconnect between how these operations appear versus how they operate. “The events this weekend were both significant and insignificant,” David Maxwell, associate director of the Center for Security Studies and the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, told Trend […]

Global Insider: Somalia Still Unsafe for Large-Scale Refugee Returns

In the aftermath of the late-September attack on Nairobi’s Westgate mall by Islamist militants linked to the Somali terrorist group al-Shabab, Kenyan authorities reportedly stepped up arrests of Somalis living in Kenya. In an email interview, Anna Lindley, a lecturer in migration, mobility and development at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, explained where Somali refugees live and the likelihood of their return. WPR: What are the main concentrations of Somali refugees outside the country, and how long have they been there? Anna Lindley: Nearly 1 million Somalis are registered as refugees in the region of […]