Many observers have turned a critical eye to pre-invasion predictions about Russia’s war on Ukraine, given how wrong they turned out to be. But the reason they were wrong is inherent to the nature of warfare itself. Our ability to accurately predict the course of a war is compromised by the inherent uncertainty of war.
Central & Eastern Europe
In early June, Ukrainian forces launched a long-anticipated, large-scale counteroffensive into Russian-controlled territory in the eastern portions of Ukraine. From the beginning, the fog of war surrounding developments on the ground has been thick, raising understandable questions, perhaps most importantly: Is it succeeding?
Since the invasion of Ukraine, independent Russian journalists who refused to follow the Kremlin’s narrow rules have had to flee the country, endure persecution by Russian intelligence and suffer the suspicion of those in their new homes. Now the attempted assassination of one of their own has raised their fears to new heights.