A Nuclear Japan?

Hugh White from The Interpreter sketches out in greater detail his argument that in order for Asia’s new order to emerge as a stable one, Japan will have to become a nuclear power. The crux of it is Japan’s concern that as China’s regional influence grows, America’s need to accomodate Peking will begin to take precedence over its strategic guarantees to Japan: So Japan faces a really tough dilemma. As long as it relies on the US for its security, Japan will understandably feel threatened if the US accords more weight to China. But if the US does not do […]

Rights & Wrongs: Singapore, Afghan Boys, Cluster Bombs, and More

INTERNATIONAL BAR REPORT ON SINGAPORE — Singapore has achieved phenomenal economic development but still fails to meet international standards on freedom of assembly and expression, and an independent judiciary, the International Bar Association’s Human Rights Institute said in a report released July 8. “As one of the world’s most successful economies, Singapore should be a leader in human rights and the rule of law, and should now have the confidence and maturity to recognize that this would be complementary, not contradictory, to its future prosperity,” institute Executive Director Mark Ellis said at its release. Singaporean authorities continue to restrict media […]

The Next COIN Laboratory

Kevin Drum cites a Juan Cole post questioning the emerging conventional wisdom of refocusing our military commitment from Iraq to Afghanistan, and thinks out loud a bit: The main argument for beefing up our presence in Afghanistan is obvious: It’s the home of al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and these are the groups we really ought to be fighting. But what’s left of al-Qaeda is in Pakistan, and Cole argues that this is largely where the remnants of the Taliban are too. . . So if we’re not going to invade Pakistan (and we’re not). . .then what are we doing […]

On Friday, July 11, senior British and American leaders denounced China and Russia for vetoing a U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolution that would have imposed sanctions against Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe and his closest supporters for using violence and other manipulations during last month’s presidential elections. The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Zalmay Khalilzad, criticized Moscow and Beijing for having sided “with Mugabe against the people of Zimbabwe.” In his remarks to the council after the vote, Khalilzad observed that, “The u-turn in the Russian position is particularly surprising and disturbing.” Khalilzad then made the stinging comment that, “The […]

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia — The United States has joined a chorus of international condemnation and offered FBI assistance after a prominent Cambodian journalist was shot dead just two weeks ahead of national elections. Khim Sambo, 47, and his 21-year-old son Khat Sarinpheata were riding on a motorbike near Phnom Penh’s Olympic Stadium when gunmen opened fire, ending a period of unusual calm amid the electioneering. Campaigning had focused on the economy and a border dispute between Cambodia and Thailand that involved possession of the Preah Vihear temple in Cambodia’s remote northwest. The temple was recently listed by UNESCO as a […]

The Central Asia Sweepstakes

Now that the world is paying attention to Asia, what is Asia paying attention to? Central Asia. Specifically, Central Asian energy, according to this post over at 2point6billion.com. China and India are both making big pushes not only to secure oil and gas supplies, but also to establish military bases and defense agreements, and the scramble for a toehold in the region has broader strategic implications: “The global order is re-dividing into roughly two de facto blocs — one has the US at its core and the other has Russia-China at its core. Energy is the major dividing line between […]

India’s Opposition & the 123 Agreement

For anyone interested in the state of play of Indian politics regarding the U.S.-India nuclear deal, this interview with the main opposition (BJP) party leader L.K. Advani from The Hindu is worth a read. Unlike the Left Party, which until this week was part of the government majority and opposes any strategic relationship with the U.S. on principle, Advani expressed his party’s desire in the post-Cold War era to develop a more solid relationship with the U.S.: I said several times that India and the USA are the two major democracies of the world — one the strongest, the other […]

Concert of Asia

There’s a fascinating discussion taking place over at The Interpreter about the basis of a stable regional order for Asia, beginning here with a post by Raoul Heinrichs about the challenges facing the “Concert of Asia” model, continuing here with Hugh White’s more optimistic take (that nonetheless includes the argument that one of the preconditions for a stable regional order is a Japanese nuclear arsenal), and winding up here with Sam Roggeveen’s “Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?!?” reaction to the Japanese nuclear proposition. Very much worth a read, with the likelihood of more to come.

BANGKOK, Thailand — In the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur July 6, 20,000 supporters of former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim braved a police ban to rally in support of the opposition leader, who has been charged with sodomy on the basis of allegations lodged by a 23-year-old former male aide. Anwar claims the charges are baseless, an attempt by the ruling party to thwart his political ambitions. Anwar supporters chanted “PM resign” as protesters arrived at a suburban sports stadium. The political turmoil erupted at elections earlier this year amid claims by Anwar that he was poised to oust […]

Ain’t Over til the Fat Lady Singhs

According to this WaPo article, the clock will most likely run out on the U.S.-India deal before Congress has a chance to approve it. But if you think that means that Indian PM Manmohan Singh has jeopardized his government coalition for nothing, think again. Because once the deal has been approved by the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group, India will pretty much have a clean bill of health to pursue nuclear deals with third parties, like France and Russia. Indian public opinion will probably be easier to win over, a third party deal would put fewer constraints on Indian […]

The annual summit of world leaders is the focal point of G-8-related activity. The sessions offer national leaders an opportunity to meet with their foreign counterparts and, due to now standard practices of limiting attendance and holding the summits outside national capitals, engage in direct multilateral and bilateral discussions with limited interruptions. Russian President Boris Yeltsin began attending the G-8 summits in 1994, but he was only allowed to attend the special sessions devoted to political affairs. He remained excluded from the main talks devoted to economic questions, where Moscow’s global influence was much weaker. At the Denver summit of […]

The Afghan Dare

For some background analysis on how the strategic rivalry between India and Pakistan plays out in Afghanistan, this post by Troy, Abu Muqawama’s resident Aghanologist, is worth a click. In a nutshell, India has long supported the Northern Alliance, while Pakistan has supported the southern Pashtuns from whom the Taliban movement springs. Troy explains that the Pakistani military’s alleged support for the Taliban should be understood as a hedge against an eventual NATO pullout, after which they consider it unlikely that Hamid Karzai would be able to survive. That brought to mind what Nikolas Gvosdev, in describing a presentation by […]

U.S.-India Nuclear Deal

According to this article in The Hindu, Indian PM Manmohan Singh’s gambit to push through the U.S.-India nuclear deal could squeak through, but his margin for error is pretty slim. With the Left Party formally announcing its intention to leave the governing coalition, Singh is depending on votes from the Samjwadi Party to survive a vote of confidence he has called for later this month. But the math is tight: The Left’s decision, though expected, set off a flurry of political maneouverings with the government, which have 230 members in the Lok Sabha without the Left, asserting that it had […]

Indian Embassy Blast

You’ll recall a few weeks back that Afghan President Hamid Karzai threatened to send Afghan forces across the Pakistani border to pursue Taliban insurgents if Pakistan didn’t start addressing the problem. Now, in the aftermath of the suicide bombing attack on India’s embassy in Kabul, a spokesman for the Afghan Interior Ministry declared, “We believe this attack was carried out in coordination and consultation with an active intelligence service in the region.” That’s a pretty strong, if veiled, accusation, one that’s not without precedent. But the fact that the target in this case was apparently India’s military attache in Kabul […]

India Nuke Deal Back On?

Indian PM Manmohan Singh has decided to stake all the marbles on the U.S.-India nuclear deal, risking his coalition government in an effort to push the deal through. The Left parties, which have opposed the deal all along, are already planning to follow through with their threat to leave the government. Singh is counting on the Samajwadi Party to hold off early elections and see the deal through. M K Bhadrakumarat at Asia Times Online describes Singh’s hardball political calculations here. What’s surprising is his reasoning: He is personally convinced of the imperative of transforming India’s foreign policy and of […]

SEOUL, South Korea — The six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program are expected to resume this month after a six-month deadlock. But Washington says many questions remain unanswered regarding North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Last week, North Korea handed over a long-awaited declaration of its nuclear activities dating back to the mid 1980s and also demolished the cooling tower of the disabled Yongbyon nuclear reactor. The disclosure was originally supposed to be submitted by the end of last year. The documentation, which was handed over to the Chinese Foreign Ministry by Pyongyang’s ambassador in Beijing, revealed details of the […]

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