North Korea’s successful nuclear test this weekend caps off a startling progression over the past 11 years from buffoonish nuclear aspirant to serious nuclear threat. Combined with successful intercontinental ballistic missile launches over the past year, the latest test effectively pushed Pyongyang over the threshold of being able to credibly target the continental U.S. with a nuclear attack.
For North Korea watchers and nonproliferation experts, the development was neither shocking nor surprising. It is Pyongyang’s sixth nuclear test, each building steadily toward the stated goal of a thermonuclear device. It follows a series of successful long-range missile tests that demonstrated North Korea’s successful pursuit of an ICBM. Whether the latest nuclear test was a thermonuclear or advanced nuclear weapon is still unclear, but that is in many ways irrelevant. The weapon’s yield was sufficient to make up for any shortcomings in the accuracy of North Korea’s missile guidance systems in the event it is used against a U.S. city.
The only remaining unknown variable in the equation that would give North Korea the ability to strike the U.S. with a nuclear weapon is whether Pyongyang’s claim that it has successfully miniaturized the device is true or mere bluster. But this too is in many ways irrelevant. Even if in reality North Korea is not yet able to load its warheads onto its ICBMs, any planning around a potential military strike against Pyongyang’s nuclear facilities must assume it can.