A severe El Niño event is expected to push up average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean for the next nine to 12 months, shifting global weather patterns. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared an official El Niño advisory on June 13, and forecasters said there was a 63 percent chance that the event becomes “very strong” by winter—a level of intensity matched only a handful of times since 1950.
In Latin America, El Niño events tend to dry out Central America, the northern Amazon and the higher elevations of the Andes, while bringing heavier rainfall to the Pacific coastal areas and the Southern Cone. The last two El Niño events in the Western Hemisphere—the very strong El Niño of 2015-16 and the only strong one in 2023-24—caused environmental disasters, political crises and economic damage.
Looking at what occurred during these previous two El Niño events offers a guide to what may lie ahead in the next few months. In these scenarios, bad weather meets bad governance, and the negative impacts are exacerbated by poor infrastructure across much of the region. Governments often fail to adequately respond, causing societies to suffer.