Is China going to pass up an opportunity to reshape the international order? Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. appears to be distancing itself from its established role as leader of the global system. Many excitable pundits and even sober diplomats have speculated that Beijing could fill the vacuum America is creating. I have to confess to being one of the excitable ones. I argued in December that Chinese President Xi Jinping could counter Trump “by seizing the initiative on issues including climate change and free trade.” At the time, Trump—then the president-elect—threatened to punish the United Nations for a […]
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Seventy years ago, a new world order emerged from the ashes of World War II. It never worked perfectly; there were still wars between and within nations. But the system did help prevent large-scale, great-power conflict and provide a rules-based process for interaction between nations. Now it may be dying. The United States was not the sole inventor of the post-WW II order, but Washington was its primary architect. But the new order did not take the shape that U.S. leaders expected. As WW II ended, Americans thought that the victorious allied powers would manage world order in concert. When […]
Foreign policy thinkers from several Asian countries are trying to focus on the positive elements of U.S. President Donald Trump’s worldview. They see a chance to expand Asian ownership of the regional agenda, and anticipate a break from American preaching about democracy and human rights. The downsides are Trump’s views on trade and the possibility of being left alone to deal with a more assertive China. During recent travels in three Asian capitals—New Delhi, Singapore and Bangkok—the evolving views of Asian elites on the Trump administration and its implications for Asia were on display. There’s a fascination with Trump and […]
Just when the United States seems to be retreating from competition in global markets, and possibly even NAFTA, socialist Cuba is moving in the opposite direction. With the signing late last month of a new trade agreement with the 15 countries of the Caribbean Community, or CARICOM, Cuba is looking to capitalize on trade and economic links with its neighbors. The feeling is mutual. The Caribbean countries have begun to see Cuba in a different light following the start of the normalization of relations between Havana and Washington and the prospect of the U.S. lifting, or at least relaxing, its […]
As most security experts expected, driving the self-styled Islamic State out of its “caliphate” in northern Iraq and eastern Syria has been tough, bloody work. Nevertheless, the Iraqi military and local militias, backed by U.S. airpower, special operations forces and military advisers, are making progress. Eventually the international coalition will, as Hal Brands and Peter Feaver write in Foreign Affairs, militarily defeat the Islamic State “by destroying its core in Syria.” Unfortunately, though, this will not kill the group—its ideology cannot be destroyed on the battlefield—but simply drive it to other locations. As FBI Director James Comey said, “At some […]
Waves of violence and economic hardship are changing patterns of migration around the world, at a moment when parties with nationalist and anti-immigrant platforms gain momentum in the West. World Politics Review compiled 15 articles that shed light on the drivers of today’s migrant crises and the forces underpinning an increasingly cold response to those seeking refuge. The Politics of Migration Understanding the Global Backlash Against Migration—and Its Costs U.S. President Donald Trump’s January entry ban for travelers from seven Muslim-majority countries focused attention on a looming shift in American immigration policy. But these developments are not occurring in a […]
Ever since Donald Trump became president of the United States, the Middle East has been abuzz with speculation about what exactly he intends to do in the region. There has been much talk about his plans for attacking the self-declared Islamic State, getting tough on Iran and strengthening ties with Israel. But there is another idea that is making the rounds. According to a number of reports, Trump is aiming to forge a new security alliance, with Arab countries at the core, along with the U.S. and, in what would constitute a groundbreaking development, Israel. It is noteworthy that in […]
In his first address to Congress last night, U.S. President Donald Trump promised to deliver a budget to Congress with “one of the largest increases in national defense spending in American history.” A day earlier, an administration official outlined plans to raise defense spending by $54 billion, or roughly 10 percent, in next year’s federal budget, while slashing outlays for the State Development and foreign aid. Though any final budget numbers will take months of negotiations with congressional leadership, the proposals are emblematic of Trump’s approach to foreign policy and international affairs. His is a world where the strong impose […]