It is tempting to think that the liberal international order might have stood a better chance absent Russian revanchism and Chinese ambition. But to do so ignores the degree to which the globalization narrative disregarded globalization’s real impact on local communities. If the war in Ukraine represents a meaningful change, it is about reasserting the centrality of the state in globalization’s violent practices.
One of the most important exercises in any war is also one of the most difficult: assessing its progress. The war in Ukraine is no exception, but with the lightning gains of Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive having slowed somewhat, it seems like a good time to make a cautious attempt to take stock of where things stand.
A renewed round of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan marks an alarming escalation of tensions between the historical enemies since the end of their war in November 2020. The attack is closely related to recent shifts in the regional balance of power, which even before 2020 had already become lopsided in Baku’s favor.